Adaptive Thinking

Author: Gerd Gigerenzer
Publisher: Oxford University Press on Demand
ISBN: 0195153723
Format: PDF, Mobi
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Where do new ideas come from? What is social intelligence? Why do social scientists perform mindless statistical rituals? Most importantly, what counts as adaptive thinking as our minds try to cope with the world around us?

Rationality for Mortals

Author: Gerd Gigerenzer
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0199747091
Format: PDF, ePub, Mobi
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What is the nature of human wisdom? For many, the ideal image of sapiens is a heavenly one: an omniscient God, a Laplacean demon, a supercomputer, or a fully consistent logical system. Gerd Gigerenzer argues, in contrast, that there are more efficient tools than logic in our minds, which he calls fast and frugal heuristics. These adaptive tools work in a world where the present is only partially known and the future is uncertain. Here, rationality is not logical but ecological, and this volume shows how this insight can help remedy even the widespread problem of statistical innumeracy.RATIONALITY FOR MORTALS (which follows on a previous collection, ADAPTIVE THINKING, also published by OUP) presents Gigerenzer's most recent articles, revised and updated where appropriate, together with a newly written introduction.

Simple Heuristics that Make Us Smart

Author: Gerd Gigerenzer
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN: 9780195143812
Format: PDF, ePub, Mobi
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Traditional views of rationality tend to see decision-makers as possessing superhuman powers of reason, limitless knowledge, and all of eternity in which to ponder choices. To understand decisions in the real world, we need a different notion of rationality, which this book seeks to provide.

Simply Rational

Author: Gerd Gigerenzer
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN: 019939007X
Format: PDF, ePub, Mobi
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Statistical illiteracy can have an enormously negative impact on decision making. This volume of collected papers brings together applied and theoretical research on risks and decision making across the fields of medicine, psychology, and economics. Collectively, the essays demonstrate why the frame in which statistics are communicated is essential for broader understanding and sound decision making, and that understanding risks and uncertainty has wide-reaching implications for daily life. Gerd Gigerenzer provides a lucid review and catalog of concrete instances of heuristics, or rules of thumb, that people and animals rely on to make decisions under uncertainty, explaining why these are very often more rational than probability models. After a critical look at behavioral theories that do not model actual psychological processes, the book concludes with a call for a "heuristic revolution" that will enable us to understand the ecological rationality of both statistics and heuristics, and bring a dose of sanity to the study of rationality.

The Irrational Economist

Author: Erwann Michel-Kerjan
Publisher: PublicAffairs
ISBN: 1586487809
Format: PDF, Docs
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The authors explore how discoveries in decision sciences will enhance traditional ideas about economics and challenges the conventional wisdom about how to make the right decisions in an emerging new era, in a book that includes informative charts.

Why Think

Author: Ronald de Sousa
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 9780198040934
Format: PDF, Docs
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In a world where natural selection has shaped adaptations of astonishing ingenuity, what is the scope and unique power of rational thinking? In this short but wide-ranging book, philosopher Ronald de Sousa looks at the twin set of issues surrounding the power of natural selection to mimic rational design, and rational thinking as itself a product of natural selection. While we commonly deem ourselves superior to other species, the logic of natural selection should not lead us to expect that nature does everything for the best. Similarly, rational action does not always promote the best possible outcomes. So what is the difference? Is the pursuit of rationality actually an effective strategy? Part of the answer lies in language, including mathematics and science. Language is the most striking device by which we have made ourselves smarter than our nearest primate cousins. Sometimes the purely instinctual responses we share with other animals put explicit reasoning to shame: the movements of a trained athlete are faster and more accurate than anything she could explicitly calculate. Language, however, with its power to abstract from concrete experience and to range over all aspects of nature, enables breathtakingly precise calculations, which have taken us to the moon and beyond. Most importantly, however, language enables us to formulate an endless multiplicity of values, in potential conflict with one another as well as with instinctual imperatives. In short, this sophisticated and entertaining book shows how our rationality and our irrationality are inextricably intertwined. Ranging over a wide array of evidence, it explores the true ramifications of being human in the natural world.

Kluge

Author: Gary Marcus
Publisher: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
ISBN: 9780547348087
Format: PDF
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How is it that we can recognize photos from our high school yearbook decades later, but cannot remember what we ate for breakfast yesterday? And why are we inclined to buy more cans of soup if the sign says "LIMIT 12 PER CUSTOMER" rather than "LIMIT 4 PER CUSTOMER?" In Kluge, Gary Marcus argues convincingly that our minds are not as elegantly designed as we may believe. The imperfections result from a haphazard evolutionary process that often proceeds by piling new systems on top of old ones—and those systems don’t always work well together. The end product is a "kluge," a clumsy, cobbled-together contraption. Taking us on a tour of the essential areas of human experience—memory, belief, decision making, language, and happiness—Marcus unveils a fundamentally new way of looking at the evolution of the human mind and simultaneously sheds light on some of the most mysterious aspects of human nature.

Adaptive Markets

Author: Andrew W. Lo
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400887763
Format: PDF, ePub, Mobi
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A new, evolutionary explanation of markets and investor behavior Half of all Americans have money in the stock market, yet economists can't agree on whether investors and markets are rational and efficient, as modern financial theory assumes, or irrational and inefficient, as behavioral economists believe—and as financial bubbles, crashes, and crises suggest. This is one of the biggest debates in economics and the value or futility of investment management and financial regulation hang on the outcome. In this groundbreaking book, Andrew Lo cuts through this debate with a new framework, the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis, in which rationality and irrationality coexist. Drawing on psychology, evolutionary biology, neuroscience, artificial intelligence, and other fields, Adaptive Markets shows that the theory of market efficiency isn't wrong but merely incomplete. When markets are unstable, investors react instinctively, creating inefficiencies for others to exploit. Lo's new paradigm explains how financial evolution shapes behavior and markets at the speed of thought—a fact revealed by swings between stability and crisis, profit and loss, and innovation and regulation. A fascinating intellectual journey filled with compelling stories, Adaptive Markets starts with the origins of market efficiency and its failures, turns to the foundations of investor behavior, and concludes with practical implications—including how hedge funds have become the Galápagos Islands of finance, what really happened in the 2008 meltdown, and how we might avoid future crises. An ambitious new answer to fundamental questions in economics, Adaptive Markets is essential reading for anyone who wants to know how markets really work.

The Rational Animal

Author: Douglas T. Kenrick
Publisher: Basic Books
ISBN: 0465040977
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
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Why are Amazonian hunter-gatherers better at logic than Harvard students? Why did the Zambian president reject food donations during a famine? And why do billionaires work so hard—only to give their hard-earned money away? In this animated tour of the latest in behavioral science, psychologist Douglas T. Kenrick and marketing professor Vladas Griskevicius argue that while our decision making may seem superficially irrational, our misjudgments are the result of a psychological mismatch between ancestral drives for survival and our modern lifestyles. Ultimately, The Rational Animal offers an uplifting message—that while our brains may still house caveman impulses, we have evolved to be smarter than we think.

The Origin and Evolution of Cultures

Author: Robert Boyd
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0199883122
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
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Oxford presents, in one convenient and coherently organized volume, 20 influential but until now relatively inaccessible articles that form the backbone of Boyd and Richerson's path-breaking work on evolution and culture. Their interdisciplinary research is based on two notions. First, that culture is crucial for understanding human behavior; unlike other organisms, socially transmitted beliefs, attitudes, and values heavily influence our behavior. Secondly, culture is part of biology: the capacity to acquire and transmit culture is a derived component of human psychology, and the contents of culture are deeply intertwined with our biology. Culture then is a pool of information, stored in the brains of the population that gets transmitted from one brain to another by social learning processes. Therefore, culture can account for both our outstanding ecological success as well as the maladaptations that characterize much of human behavior. The interest in this collection will span anthropology, psychology, economics, philosophy, and political science.