Bayesian Inference for Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Author: Dana Kelly
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9781849961875
Format: PDF, Mobi
Download Now
Bayesian Inference for Probabilistic Risk Assessment provides a Bayesian foundation for framing probabilistic problems and performing inference on these problems. Inference in the book employs a modern computational approach known as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The MCMC approach may be implemented using custom-written routines or existing general purpose commercial or open-source software. This book uses an open-source program called OpenBUGS (commonly referred to as WinBUGS) to solve the inference problems that are described. A powerful feature of OpenBUGS is its automatic selection of an appropriate MCMC sampling scheme for a given problem. The authors provide analysis “building blocks” that can be modified, combined, or used as-is to solve a variety of challenging problems. The MCMC approach used is implemented via textual scripts similar to a macro-type programming language. Accompanying most scripts is a graphical Bayesian network illustrating the elements of the script and the overall inference problem being solved. Bayesian Inference for Probabilistic Risk Assessment also covers the important topics of MCMC convergence and Bayesian model checking. Bayesian Inference for Probabilistic Risk Assessment is aimed at scientists and engineers who perform or review risk analyses. It provides an analytical structure for combining data and information from various sources to generate estimates of the parameters of uncertainty distributions used in risk and reliability models.

Safety and Risk Modeling and Its Applications

Author: Hoang Pham
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9780857294708
Format: PDF
Download Now
Safety and Risk Modeling presents the latest theories and methods of safety and risk with an emphasis on safety and risk in modeling. It covers applications in several areas including transportations and security risk assessments, as well as applications related to current topics in safety and risk. Safety and Risk Modeling is a valuable resource for understanding the latest developments in both qualitative and quantitative methods of safety and risk analysis and their applications in operating environments. Each chapter has been written by active researchers or experienced practitioners to bridge the gap between theory and practice and to trigger new research challenges in safety and risk. Topics include: safety engineering, system maintenance, safety in design, failure analysis, and risk concept and modelling. Postgraduate students, researchers, and practitioners in many fields of engineering, operations research, management, and statistics will find Safety and Risk Modeling a state-of-the-art survey of reliability and quality in design and practice.

Reliability Engineering and Risk Analysis

Author: Mohammad Modarres
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 149874589X
Format: PDF, Mobi
Download Now
This undergraduate and graduate textbook provides a practical and comprehensive overview of reliability and risk analysis techniques. Written for engineering students and practicing engineers, the book is multi-disciplinary in scope. The new edition has new topics in classical confidence interval estimation; Bayesian uncertainty analysis; models for physics-of-failure approach to life estimation; extended discussions on the generalized renewal process and optimal maintenance; and further modifications, updates, and discussions. The book includes examples to clarify technical subjects and many end of chapter exercises. PowerPoint slides and a Solutions Manual are also available.

Risk and Reliability Analysis Theory and Applications

Author: Paolo Gardoni
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319524259
Format: PDF, ePub, Mobi
Download Now
This book presents a unique collection of contributions from some of the foremost scholars in the field of risk and reliability analysis. Combining the most advanced analysis techniques with practical applications, it is one of the most comprehensive and up-to-date books available on risk-based engineering. All the fundamental concepts needed to conduct risk and reliability assessments are covered in detail, providing readers with a sound understanding of the field and making the book a powerful tool for students and researchers alike. This book was prepared in honor of Professor Armen Der Kiureghian, one of the fathers of modern risk and reliability analysis.

Quality and Reliability Management and Its Applications

Author: Hoang Pham
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 1447167783
Format: PDF, Docs
Download Now
Integrating development processes, policies, and reliability predictions from the beginning of the product development lifecycle to ensure high levels of product performance and safety, this book helps companies overcome the challenges posed by increasingly complex systems in today’s competitive marketplace. Examining both research on and practical aspects of product quality and reliability management with an emphasis on applications, the book features contributions written by active researchers and/or experienced practitioners in the field, so as to effectively bridge the gap between theory and practice and address new research challenges in reliability and quality management in practice. Postgraduates, researchers and practitioners in the areas of reliability engineering and management, amongst others, will find the book to offer a state-of-the-art survey of quality and reliability management and practices.

Reliability and Safety Engineering

Author: Ajit Kumar Verma
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 1447162692
Format: PDF, Docs
Download Now
Reliability and safety are core issues that must be addressed throughout the life cycle of engineering systems. Reliability and Safety Engineering presents an overview of the basic concepts, together with simple and practical illustrations. The authors present reliability terminology in various engineering fields, viz., electronics engineering, software engineering, mechanical engineering, structural engineering and power systems engineering. The book describes the latest applications in the area of probabilistic safety assessment, such as technical specification optimization, risk monitoring and risk informed in-service inspection. Reliability and safety studies must, inevitably, deal with uncertainty, so the book includes uncertainty propagation methods: Monte Carlo simulation, fuzzy arithmetic, Dempster-Shafer theory and probability bounds. Reliability and Safety Engineering also highlights advances in system reliability and safety assessment including dynamic system modeling and uncertainty management. Case studies from typical nuclear power plants as well as from structural, software and electronic systems are also discussed. Reliability and Safety Engineering combines discussions of the existing literature on basic concepts and applications with state-of-the-art methods used in reliability and risk assessment of engineering systems. It is designed to assist practicing engineers, students and researchers in the areas of reliability engineering and risk analysis.

Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks

Author: Norman Fenton
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1439809119
Format: PDF, Kindle
Download Now
Although many Bayesian Network (BN) applications are now in everyday use, BNs have not yet achieved mainstream penetration. Focusing on practical real-world problem solving and model building, as opposed to algorithms and theory, Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks explains how to incorporate knowledge with data to develop and use (Bayesian) causal models of risk that provide powerful insights and better decision making. Provides all tools necessary to build and run realistic Bayesian network models Supplies extensive example models based on real risk assessment problems in a wide range of application domains provided; for example, finance, safety, systems reliability, law, and more Introduces all necessary mathematics, probability, and statistics as needed The book first establishes the basics of probability, risk, and building and using BN models, then goes into the detailed applications. The underlying BN algorithms appear in appendices rather than the main text since there is no need to understand them to build and use BN models. Keeping the body of the text free of intimidating mathematics, the book provides pragmatic advice about model building to ensure models are built efficiently. A dedicated website, www.BayesianRisk.com, contains executable versions of all of the models described, exercises and worked solutions for all chapters, PowerPoint slides, numerous other resources, and a free downloadable copy of the AgenaRisk software.

Human Factors and Reliability Engineering for Safety and Security in Critical Infrastructures

Author: Fabio De Felice
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319623192
Format: PDF, ePub, Mobi
Download Now
This book collects a high-quality selection of contemporary research and case studies on the complexity resulting from human/reliability management in industrial plants and critical infrastructures. It includes: Human-error management issues—considering how to reduce human errors as much as possible. Reliability management issues—considering the ability of a system or component to function under certain conditions for a specified period of time. Thus, the book analyses globally the problem regarding the human and reliability management to reduce human errors as much as possible and to ensure safety and security in critical infrastructures. Accidents continue to be the major concern in “critical infrastructures”, and human factors have been proved to be the prime causes to accidents. Clearly, human dynamics are a challenging management function to guarantee reliability, safety and costs reduction in critical infrastructures. The book is enriched by figures, examples and extensive case studies and is a valuable reference resource for those with involved in disaster and emergency planning as well as researchers interested both in theoretical and practical aspects.

Handbook of Reliability Engineering

Author: Hoang Pham
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1852338415
Format: PDF, ePub, Mobi
Download Now
An effective reliability programme is an essential component of every product's design, testing and efficient production. From the failure analysis of a microelectronic device to software fault tolerance and from the accelerated life testing of mechanical components to hardware verification, a common underlying philosophy of reliability applies. Defining both fundamental and applied work across the entire systems reliability arena, this state-of-the-art reference presents methodologies for quality, maintainability and dependability. Featuring: Contributions from 60 leading reliability experts in academia and industry giving comprehensive and authoritative coverage. A distinguished international Editorial Board ensuring clarity and precision throughout. Extensive references to the theoretical foundations, recent research and future directions described in each chapter. Comprehensive subject index providing maximum utility to the reader. Applications and examples across all branches of engineering including IT, power, automotive and aerospace sectors. The handbook's cross-disciplinary scope will ensure that it serves as an indispensable tool for researchers in industrial, electrical, electronics, computer, civil, mechanical and systems engineering. It will also aid professional engineers to find creative reliability solutions and management to evaluate systems reliability and to improve processes. For student research projects it will be the ideal starting point whether addressing basic questions in communications and electronics or learning advanced applications in micro-electro-mechanical systems (MEMS), manufacturing and high-assurance engineering systems.

Composite Sampling

Author: Ganapati P. Patil
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9781441976284
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
Download Now
Sampling consists of selection, acquisition, and quantification of a part of the population. While selection and acquisition apply to physical sampling units of the population, quantification pertains only to the variable of interest, which is a particular characteristic of the sampling units. A sampling procedure is expected to provide a sample that is representative with respect to some specified criteria. Composite sampling, under idealized conditions, incurs no loss of information for estimating the population means. But an important limitation to the method has been the loss of information on individual sample values, such as, the extremely large value. In many of the situations where individual sample values are of interest or concern, composite sampling methods can be suitably modified to retrieve the information on individual sample values that may be lost due to compositing. This book presents statistical solutions to issues that arise in the context of applications of composite sampling.