Calculated Risks

Author: Gerd Gigerenzer
Publisher: Simon and Schuster
ISBN: 1439127093
Format: PDF, Kindle
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At the beginning of the twentieth century, H. G. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics. Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven't learned statistical thinking, we don't understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk -- everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests -- we need a basic understanding of statistics. Astonishingly, doctors and lawyers don't understand risk any better than anyone else. Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening. The actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives. But nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. Yet many people will have to make important health decisions based on such information and the interpretation of that information by their doctors. Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty. Many of us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain. But even DNA evidence can produce spurious matches. We cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, and election campaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity. To avoid confusion, says Gigerenzer, we should rely on more understandable representations of risk, such as absolute risks. For example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent. But in absolute risks, that means that out of every 1,000 women who do not participate in screening, 4 will die; while out of 1,000 women who do, 3 will die. A 25 percent risk reduction sounds much more significant than a benefit that 1 out of 1,000 women will reap. This eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives.

Risiko

Author: Gerd Gigerenzer
Publisher: C. Bertelsmann Verlag
ISBN: 3641119901
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
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Der neue Bestseller von Gerd Gigerenzer Erinnern wir uns an die weltweite Angst vor der Schweinegrippe, als Experten eine nie dagewesene Pandemie prognostizierten und Impfstoff für Millionen produziert wurde, der später still und heimlich entsorgt werden musste. Für Gerd Gigerenzer ist dies nur ein Beleg unseres irrationalen Umgangs mit Risiken. Und das gilt für Experten ebenso wie für Laien. An Beispielen aus Medizin, Rechtswesen und Finanzwelt erläutert er, wie die Psychologie des Risikos funktioniert, was sie mit unseren entwicklungsgeschichtlich alten Hirnstrukturen zu tun hat und welche Gefahren damit einhergehen. Dabei analysiert er die ungute Rolle von irreführenden Informationen, die von Medien und Fachleuten verbreitet werden. Doch Risiken und Ungewissheiten richtig einzuschätzen kann und sollte jeder lernen. Diese Risikoschulung erprobt Gigerenzer seit vielen Jahren mit verblüffenden Ergebnissen. Sein Fazit: Schon Kinder können lernen, mit Risiken realistisch umzugehen und sich gegen Panikmache wie Verharmlosung zu immunisieren.

Das Einmaleins der Skepsis

Author: Gerd Gigerenzer
Publisher: eBook Berlin Verlag
ISBN: 3827077923
Format: PDF, Mobi
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Das provokative Buch eines der renommiertesten deutschen Psychologen ermutigt zur Skepsis gegenüber vermeintlich absoluten Wahrheiten. »Mit seiner Studie über den richtigen Umgang mit Zahlen und Risiken hat Gerd Gigerenzer geradezu ein Manual für die Risikogesellschaft vorgelegt, nach dessen Lektüre man statistischen Aussagen nicht einfach mit Misstrauen, sondern mit der richtigen Art von Nachfragen begegnen wird.« FAZ

100 Things You re Not Supposed to Know

Author: Russ Kick
Publisher: Red Wheel Weiser
ISBN: 1609259475
Format: PDF
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This book sheds light on those things that people in power—government, religious leaders, corporations, the rich and well connected—would just as soon wish you didn't know. To them secrets are power. And they'll do whatever it takes to keep them that way—suppressing the truth and covering up facts that might make the rest of us angry enough to challenge the powerful or at least to have a good laugh at their expense. Using careful research and impeccable sources, Kick uncovers the hidden truth. For example, self-appointed censors warn constantly about the dangers of pornography, the fact is that pornography has existed since the first cave people carved dirty pictures on the walls. It's also true that two atomic bombs were dropped on North Carolina—although we managed to avoid nuking Greenland, Texas, Canada, Britain and Spain; George Washington embezzled government funds; 1 of 10 people is not fathered by the man they believe is dad; Barbie is based on a German sex doll; The American colonists practiced cannibalism, and much more. This is a combined edition of 50 Things You're Not Supposed to Know Volumes 1 and 2 first published in 2003 and 2004.

Neue Materialien f r einen realit tsbezogenen Mathematikunterricht 2

Author: Jürgen Maaß
Publisher: Springer-Verlag
ISBN: 3658050039
Format: PDF, ePub
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Modellierungskompetenz ist gefragt! Realitätsbezogener Mathematikunterricht, wie er in diesem Buch an 10 aktuellen Beispielen vorgestellt wird, motiviert die SchülerInnen und trägt wesentlich zur Modellierungskompetenz bei. Die Palette der Themen reicht von 3D-Grafik in Computerspielen und Teamtraining im Radsport über den Weltrekordsprung von F. Baumgartner bis in die Niederungen des Wettbetrugs, von Finanzmathematik über den Wärmetod der Erde zu Genauigkeitsfragen beim Kalender und nicht zuletzt zu Unterrichtsvorschlägen zum funktionalen Denken und zur probabilistischen Modellbildung. Die AutorInnen sind erfahrende LehrerInnen und MathematikdidaktikerInnen, die für dieses Buch im Mathematikunterricht erfolgreich einsetzbare Unterrichtsvorschläge aufgeschrieben haben.​ Dies ist der zweite Band mit "Neuen Materialien für einen realitätsbezogenen Mathematikunterricht" von ISTRON, einer Gruppe von Lehrenden an Schulen und Hochschulen sowie in der Lehrerbildung tätigen Personen, der innerhalb der Reihe "Realitätsbezüge im Mathematikunterricht" erscheint.

The Life You Save

Author: Patrick Malone
Publisher: Hachette UK
ISBN: 0786748095
Format: PDF, Mobi
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Millions of Americans suffer from indifferent, outdated health care; an estimated 40,000 incidents of medical harm happen every day. The good news is that you can prevent this from happening to you or a family member. Better yet, you can find the very best care in the world. Patrick Malone’s sensible advice and real-life anecdotes will inspire you to take charge of your own health care, make the best choices, and avoid serious harm. With the “Necessary Nine”—the essential steps to finding the best medical care—The Life You Save offers vital information such as: • The single most important question you can ask your doctor • When to know you have symptoms your doctor should not shrug off • Checklists to help you get out of the hospital in one piece • Where to locate the best surgeons and safest hospitals

Abw gung im Recht

Author: Ekkehard Hofmann
Publisher: Mohr Siebeck
ISBN: 9783161492389
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
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English summary: The normative theory of government discretion in relation to both lawmaking and administrative adjudication, which is one of the central elements of planning law, has yielded a wealth of valuable insights based on an analysis of a long and extensive case law history. However, up to now little attention has been paid to the fact that the doctrine of reasonable commensuration ( Abwagungsgebot ), which is derived from the principle of proportionality, makes certain methodological demands, particularly pertaining to predictions and value judgments, demands that cannot be sufficiently dealt with by using only natural language. In view of the gulf between these requirements and their implementation, Ekkehard Hofmann studies the potential usefulness of the numerical methods, developed in economic decision theory for carrying out the overall assessment that is necessary for making balanced decisions and communicating their rationale. German description: Die Abwagungsdogmatik halt nach einer langjahrigen und umfangreichen Rechtsprechungsgeschichte nicht nur eine Fulle von Losungen fur Einzelfragen des Planungsrechts bereit. Daruber hinaus lasst sich das dem Verhaltnismassigkeitsgrundsatz entstammende Gebot gerechter Abwagung auch ohne weiteres als allgemeine Grundstruktur komplexer hoheitlicher Handlungen entfalten. Bisher nur wenig beachtet wurde hingegen, dass das Abwagungsgebot bestimmte Anforderungen im Sinne einer Handlungsnorm an Verwaltung und Gesetzgeber stellt, die mit der ublichen naturlich-sprachlichen Darstellungsweise nicht hinreichend bewaltigt werden konnen. Insbesondere die Durchfuhrung einer Gesamtabwagung unter Heranziehung einer bilanzierenden Betrachtungsweise stellt die Praxis vor methodische Probleme. Da aber der Verhaltnismassigkeitsgrundsatz Grundvoraussetzungen rationalen Handelns formuliert, erscheint eine Weiterentwicklung des Rechts angezeigt. Ekkehard Hofmann zieht hierfur die wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Entscheidungstheorie heran, in der eine Vielzahl leistungsfahiger Methoden zur Beschreibung und Anleitung von Entscheidungsvorgangen entwickelt worden ist. Um die Ubertragbarkeit dieser Verfahren auf den Kontext hoheitlicher Entscheidungen zu uberprufen, werden die bisherigen Anwendungsfelder formaler Ansatze in der Praxis ausfuhrlich analysiert. Die zunehmend erkennbaren Bemuhungen der deutschen Bundesregierung, der US-Regierung und in jungster Zeit auch der EU-Kommission um eine transparente und kalkulatorisch leistungsfahige Methodik lassen erwarten, dass derartige Instrumente in Zukunft bei Rechtsanwendung und Rechtsetzung verstarkt zum Einsatz kommen werden.

Reduce Your Cancer Risk

Author: Barbara Boughton
Publisher: Demos Medical Publishing
ISBN: 9781935281283
Format: PDF, Docs
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Develop your anticancer strategy Knowledge is power. Knowing your cancer risk is your best weapon against cancer. Co-published with the American Cancer Society, Reduce Your Cancer Risk: Twelve Steps to a Healthier Life will help you assess your risk based on your family history, genetics, and environment, and help you make a comprehensive action plan to lower your chances of getting cancer. With an anticancer strategy in place, youíll help to protect yourself against cancer and live a healthier, happier life. Reduce Your Cancer Risk includes the most up-to-date information on: Personal risk assessment Lifestyle changes Preventive health strategies Genetic counseling Preventive anti-cancer medications

Risk A Very Short Introduction

Author: Baruch Fischhoff
Publisher: OUP Oxford
ISBN: 0191620246
Format: PDF, ePub
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We find risks everywhere—from genetically modified crops, medical malpractice, and stem-cell therapy to intimacy, online predators, identity theft, inflation, and robbery. They arise from our own acts and they are imposed on us. In this Very Short Introduction, Baruch Fischhoff and John Kadvany draw on the sciences and humanities to explore and explain the many kinds of risk. Using simple conceptual frameworks from decision theory and behavioural research, they examine the science and practice of creating measures of risk, showing how scientists address risks by combining historical records, scientific theories, probability, and expert judgment.Risk: A Very Short Introduction describes what has been learned by cognitive scientists about how people deal with risks, applying these lessons to diverse examples, and demonstrating how understanding risk can aid choices in everyday life and public policies for health, safety, environment, finance, and many other topics. ABOUT THE SERIES: The Very Short Introductions series from Oxford University Press contains hundreds of titles in almost every subject area. These pocket-sized books are the perfect way to get ahead in a new subject quickly. Our expert authors combine facts, analysis, perspective, new ideas, and enthusiasm to make interesting and challenging topics highly readable.

Communication and Engagement with Science and Technology

Author: John K. Gilbert
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1136662685
Format: PDF, Mobi
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Science communication seeks to engage individuals and groups with evidence-based information about the nature, outcomes, and social consequences of science and technology. This text provides an overview of this burgeoning field ─ the issues with which it deals, important influences that affect it, the challenges that it faces. It introduces readers to the research-based literature about science communication and shows how it relates to actual or potential practice. A "Further Exploration" section provides suggestions for activities that readers might do to explore the issues raised. Organized around five themes, each chapter addresses a different aspect of science communication: • Models of science communication – theory into practice • Challenges in communicating science • Major themes in science communication • Informal learning • Communication of contemporary issues in science and society Relevant for all those interested in and concerned about current issues and developments in science communication, this volume is an ideal text for courses and a must-have resource for faculty, students, and professionals in this field.