Author: M. A. H. Dempster
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1498712339
Format: PDF, Mobi
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Since a major source of income for many countries comes from exporting commodities, price discovery and information transmission between commodity futures markets are key issues for continued economic development. This book covers the fundamental theory of and derivatives pricing for major commodity markets as well as the interaction between commodity prices, the real economy, and other financial markets. After an extensive theoretical and practical introduction, the book is divided into four parts: Oil Products – considers the structural changes in the demand and supply for hedging services that are increasingly determining the price of oil Other Commodities – examines markets related to agricultural commodities, including natural gas, wine, soybeans, corn, gold, silver, copper, and other metals Commodity Prices and Financial Markets – investigates the contemporary aspects of the financialization of commodities, including stocks, bonds, futures, currency markets, index products, and exchange traded funds Electricity Markets – supplies an overview of the current and future modelling of electricity markets With contributions from well-known academics and practitioners, this volume includes coverage of the fundamental theory of futures/forwards and derivatives pricing for major commodity markets. The contributions to Sections I and II of this volume, which treat storable or agricultural commodities, take speculation into account through a consideration of markets over time being either in backwardation or contango. Up-to-date considerations of both trading and investment are included in Sections I, II, and III. The book also reviews the effects of urbanization and the expanding middle-class population on commodities.

Stochastic Modelling of Electricity and Related Markets

Author: Fred Espen Benth
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9812812318
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
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The markets for electricity, gas and temperature have distinctive features, which provide the focus for countless studies. For instance, electricity and gas prices may soar several magnitudes above their normal levels within a short time due to imbalances in supply and demand, yielding what is known as spikes in the spot prices. The markets are also largely influenced by seasons, since power demand for heating and cooling varies over the year. The incompleteness of the markets, due to nonstorability of electricity and temperature as well as limited storage capacity of gas, makes spot-forward hedging impossible. Moreover, futures contracts are typically settled over a time period rather than at a fixed date. All these aspects of the markets create new challenges when analyzing price dynamics of spot, futures and other derivatives. This book provides a concise and rigorous treatment on the stochastic modeling of energy markets. OrnsteinOCoUhlenbeck processes are described as the basic modeling tool for spot price dynamics, where innovations are driven by time-inhomogeneous jump processes. Temperature futures are studied based on a continuous higher-order autoregressive model for the temperature dynamics. The theory presented here pays special attention to the seasonality of volatility and the Samuelson effect. Empirical studies using data from electricity, temperature and gas markets are given to link theory to practice. Sample Chapter(s). A Survey of Electricity and Related Markets (331 KB). Contents: A Survey of Electricity and Related Markets; Stochastic Analysis for Independent Increment Processes; Stochastic Models for the Energy Spot Price Dynamics; Pricing of Forwards and Swaps Based on the Spot Price; Applications to the Gas Markets; Modeling Forwards and Swaps Using the HeathOCoJarrowOCoMorton Approach; Constructing Smooth Forward Curves in Electricity Markets; Modeling of the Electricity Futures Market; Pricing and Hedging of Energy Options; Analysis of Temperature Derivatives. Readership: Researchers in energy and commodity markets, and mathematical finance.

Modeling and Valuation of Energy Structures

Author: Daniel Mahoney
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 1137560150
Format: PDF, Kindle
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Commodity markets present several challenges for quantitative modeling. These include high volatilities, small sample data sets, and physical, operational complexity. In addition, the set of traded products in commodity markets is more limited than in financial or equity markets, making value extraction through trading more difficult. These facts make it very easy for modeling efforts to run into serious problems, as many models are very sensitive to noise and hence can easily fail in practice. Modeling and Valuation of Energy Structures is a comprehensive guide to quantitative and statistical approaches that have been successfully employed in support of trading operations, reflecting the author's 17 years of experience as a front-office 'quant'. The major theme of the book is that simpler is usually better, a message that is drawn out through the reality of incomplete markets, small samples, and informational constraints. The necessary mathematical tools for understanding these issues are thoroughly developed, with many techniques (analytical, econometric, and numerical) collected in a single volume for the first time. A particular emphasis is placed on the central role that the underlying market resolution plays in valuation. Examples are provided to illustrate that robust, approximate valuations are to be preferred to overly ambitious attempts at detailed qualitative modeling.

Portfolio Rebalancing

Author: Edward E. Qian
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 9781498732444
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
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The goal of Portfolio Rebalancing is to provide mathematical and empirical analysis of the effects of portfolio rebalancing on portfolio returns and risks. The mathematical analysis answers the question of when and why fixed-weight portfolios might outperform buy-and-hold portfolios based on volatilities and returns. The empirical analysis, aided by mathematical insights, will examine the effects of portfolio rebalancing in capital markets for asset allocation portfolios and portfolios of stocks, bonds, and commodities.

Introduction to Risk Parity and Budgeting

Author: Thierry Roncalli
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1482207168
Format: PDF, ePub, Mobi
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Although portfolio management didn’t change much during the 40 years after the seminal works of Markowitz and Sharpe, the development of risk budgeting techniques marked an important milestone in the deepening of the relationship between risk and asset management. Risk parity then became a popular financial model of investment after the global financial crisis in 2008. Today, pension funds and institutional investors are using this approach in the development of smart indexing and the redefinition of long-term investment policies. Written by a well-known expert of asset management and risk parity, Introduction to Risk Parity and Budgeting provides an up-to-date treatment of this alternative method to Markowitz optimization. It builds financial exposure to equities and commodities, considers credit risk in the management of bond portfolios, and designs long-term investment policy. The first part of the book gives a theoretical account of portfolio optimization and risk parity. The author discusses modern portfolio theory and offers a comprehensive guide to risk budgeting. Each chapter in the second part presents an application of risk parity to a specific asset class. The text covers risk-based equity indexation (also called smart beta) and shows how to use risk budgeting techniques to manage bond portfolios. It also explores alternative investments, such as commodities and hedge funds, and applies risk parity techniques to multi-asset classes. The book’s first appendix provides technical materials on optimization problems, copula functions, and dynamic asset allocation. The second appendix contains 30 tutorial exercises. Solutions to the exercises, slides for instructors, and Gauss computer programs to reproduce the book’s examples, tables, and figures are available on the author’s website.

Problems and Solutions in Mathematical Finance

Author: Eric Chin
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119966086
Format: PDF
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Mathematical finance requires the use of advanced mathematical techniques drawn from the theory of probability, stochastic processes and stochastic differential equations. These areas are generally introduced and developed at an abstract level, making it problematic when applying these techniques to practical issues in finance. Problems and Solutions in Mathematical Finance Volume I: Stochastic Calculus is the first of a four-volume set of books focusing on problems and solutions in mathematical finance. This volume introduces the reader to the basic stochastic calculus concepts required for the study of this important subject, providing a large number of worked examples which enable the reader to build the necessary foundation for more practical orientated problems in the later volumes. Through this application and by working through the numerous examples, the reader will properly understand and appreciate the fundamentals that underpin mathematical finance. Written mainly for students, industry practitioners and those involved in teaching in this field of study, Stochastic Calculus provides a valuable reference book to complement one’s further understanding of mathematical finance.

The new commodity trading systems and methods

Author: Perry J. Kaufman
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Inc
Format: PDF, Docs
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One of the best and complete sources for locating, understanding, and developing a trading strategy. Focusing on ways to trade on the futures (or any) market for profit, it fully explains entire trading systems, classifies many approaches, points out their similarities and differences, and describes how these techniques will cause greater risk or reward given different circumstances. Chapters build from simple systems to more complex approaches, such as spectral analysis, showing why simplicity is often best. Includes some systems appropriate for computer application, with many programs appearing in an appendix. The treatment is complete, clearly written, and unbiased.