Exit Polls

Author: Samuel J. Best
Publisher: CQ Press
ISBN: 145223440X
Format: PDF, ePub, Mobi
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Every two years, exit polls become the most widely analyzed, written about, and discussed data-set in the United States. Although exit polls are known for their use in predicting elections, they are in fact the best tool for explaining election results. Exit polls are taken from actual voters, whereas pre-election polls that tally people’s intended votes tend to overstate the number of people who will actually go to the polls. Exit Polls: Surveying the American Electorate is a groundbreaking new reference work that explores for the first time the trends in longitudinal variables asked in the national Election Day exit polls from their beginning in 1972 to the present. The book documents comparable survey items that have appeared in multiple exit polls over time. Authors Samuel J. Best and Brian S. Krueger—both election commentators for CBS news and statistical experts—present more than 100 tables and 100 figures showing the changes in the American electorate and its voting patterns over time. This work represents the first time exit poll data has been combined to show trends over time. Chapter one: The Exit Poll Phenomenon provides a brief history of exit polls and chronicles how they evolved into their current arrangement. It explains how exit poll questions are developed, the sampling and weighting procedures used, the reporting protocols adopted, and the benefits and limitations of exit polls. Chapter two: Creating and Using Exit Poll Time Series describes how individual exit polls were compiled into a first of its kind cumulative data file and discusses the rationale for selecting specific survey items. The chapter explains the techniques used to merge the data and discusses the framework used to present the data in the subsequent chapters. Chapter three: Composition of Voters in Federal Elections focuses on changes in the demographic and ideological composition of the electorate over almost forty years, including gender, age, race, sexual orientation, education, income, religion, party membership, and military service. Chapter four: The Presidential Voting Preferences of the Active Electorate examines the presidential voting patterns of the various groups that make up the American electorate, from 1972 to 2010. Chapter five: The Congressional Voting Preferences of the Active Electorate examines the congressional voting patterns of the various groups that make up the American electorate from 1972 to 2010. Offering unique insight into the American electorate, this important new work is meant to serve novice and expert researchers alike. Libraries with holdings in American politics and government will want to acquire this one-of-a-kind resource.

Presidential Swing States

Author: David A Schultz
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN: 1498565875
Format: PDF, ePub, Mobi
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In this new and updated volume, the contributors examine the phenomena of presidential swing states in the 2016 presidential election. They explore the reasons why some states and, now counties are the focus of candidate attention, are capable of voting for either of the major candidates, and are decisive in determining who wins the presidency.

Standoff

Author: Bill Schneider
Publisher: Simon and Schuster
ISBN: 1451606249
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
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Bill Schneider, former CNN senior political analyst, takes us inside the voting booth to show how Americans vote and why their votes sometimes seem to make no practical sense. In the 1960s, a rift developed between the Old America and the New America that resulted in a populist backlash that ultimately elected Donald Trump in 2016. Schneider describes an American populism that is economically progressive and culturally conservative. Liberals are attacked as cultural elitists (“limousine liberals”), and conservatives as economic elitists (“country club conservatives”). Trump is the complete populist package. He embraces social populism (anti-immigrant), economic populism (anti-free trade), and isolationism (“America First”). Standoff examines a number of hard-fought elections to show us how we got to Trump. He asserts the power of public opinion. He points to the public that draws the line on abortion and affirmative action. He shows why an intense minority cancels a majority on gun control, immigration, small government, and international interests. Standoff tells us why fifty years of presidential contests have often been confounding. It takes us inside to watch how and why Americans pull the lever, how they choose their issues and select their leaders. It is usually values that trump economics. Standoff is required reading for an understanding of the 2016 election and the political future.

Internet Data Collection

Author: Samuel J. Best
Publisher: SAGE
ISBN: 9780761927105
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
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Designed for researchers and students alike, the volume describes how to perform each stage of the data collection process on the Internet, including sampling, instrument design, and administration. Through the use of non-technical prose and illustrations, it details the options available, describes potential dangers in choosing them, and provides guidelines for sidestepping them. In doing so, though, it does not simply reiterate the practices of traditional communication modes, but approaches the Internet as a unique medium that necessitates its own conventions.

The End of White Christian America

Author: Robert P. Jones
Publisher: Simon and Schuster
ISBN: 1501122290
Format: PDF, Mobi
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"The founder and CEO of Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) and columnist forThe Atlantic describes how white Protestant Christians have declined in influence and power since the 1990s and explores the effect this has had on America,"--NoveList.

United States Congressional Elections 1788 1997

Author: Michael J. Dubin
Publisher: McFarland Publishing
ISBN: 9780786402830
Format: PDF, Docs
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With a compilation of information that has never before been available in one source, this exhaustive reference work provides complete published election returns for all popular Congressional elections, including special elections, in the United States--over 36,000 since 1788. For all candidates, party affiliation, number of votes received, and percentage of popular vote are given. A brief history of congressional elections is provided, outlining the variations between states in the early years and detailing the changes caused by the Civil War and the Reconstruction era.

Encyclopedia of U S Campaigns Elections and Electoral Behavior

Author: Kenneth F. Warren
Publisher: SAGE Publications
ISBN: 1452265879
Format: PDF, ePub
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"Overall, a first-rate resource, and yes, pleasantly readable." —School Library Journal The Encyclopedia of U.S. Campaigns, Elections, and Electoral Behavior covers virtually everything one would want to know about American political campaigns. With more than 450 entries, these two comprehensive volumes present a significant array topics of campaigns, elections, and electoral behavior. The encyclopedia's diverse content shows that although the subject matter of campaigns, elections, and electoral behavior is inherently related, each topic has a distinct focus. Key Features Presents topics in a straightforward, easy-to-understand manner, intentionally avoiding unnecessary technical language Includes entries written by electoral behavior scholars from around the country Focuses on American campaigns, elections, and electoral behavior but also provides a culturally and politically diverse perspective of American democratic practices and institutions Offers a rich campaign history by looking at many colorful candidates, corrupt yet intriguing political machines, rapidly changing technologies, campaign organizations, and strategies Provides a description and scholarly analysis for all presidential elections, including state and general elections Presents and simplifies complicated election laws that govern federal, state, and local elections Examines various efforts throughout the decades to reform elections, especially from social upheaval and the resulting political realignments Includes extensive electoral research into the development of political opinions, attitudes, and ideologies in American voters Key Themes Ballot Issue Campaigns Campaigns, Elections and the Law Corruption in American Campaigns and Elections Electoral Behavior of Various Groups Local Campaigns and Elections Media's Role in American Campaigns and Elections People Political Parties, Interest Groups, and American Campaigns and Elections Political Theory and Democratic Elections in America Polls, Public Opinion, and Campaigns and Elections Presidential Campaigns and Elections Reforming American Campaigns and Elections Running Political Campaigns: Management, Organization, and Strategies Social and Psychological Dynamics of Electoral Behavior State and Congressional Campaigns and Elections: History and State Profiles The Encyclopedia of U.S. Campaigns, Elections, and Electoral Behavior is an especially useful reference, published to coincide with the 2008 presidential election. This informative yet intriguing resource is a welcome addition to any academic or public library.

Brokers Voters and Clientelism

Author: Susan C. Stokes
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1107042208
Format: PDF
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Brokers, Voters, and Clientelism studies distributive politics: how parties and governments use material resources to win elections. The authors develop a theory that explains why loyal supporters, rather than swing voters, tend to benefit from pork-barrel politics; why poverty encourages clientelism and vote buying; and why redistribution and voter participation do not justify non-programmatic distribution.

Affluence and Influence

Author: Martin Gilens
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 0691153973
Format: PDF, ePub
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Can a country be a democracy if its government only responds to the preferences of the rich? In an ideal democracy, all citizens should have equal influence on government policy--but as this book demonstrates, America's policymakers respond almost exclusively to the preferences of the economically advantaged. Affluence and Influence definitively explores how political inequality in the United States has evolved over the last several decades and how this growing disparity has been shaped by interest groups, parties, and elections. With sharp analysis and an impressive range of data, Martin Gilens looks at thousands of proposed policy changes, and the degree of support for each among poor, middle-class, and affluent Americans. His findings are staggering: when preferences of low- or middle-income Americans diverge from those of the affluent, there is virtually no relationship between policy outcomes and the desires of less advantaged groups. In contrast, affluent Americans' preferences exhibit a substantial relationship with policy outcomes whether their preferences are shared by lower-income groups or not. Gilens shows that representational inequality is spread widely across different policy domains and time periods. Yet Gilens also shows that under specific circumstances the preferences of the middle class and, to a lesser extent, the poor, do seem to matter. In particular, impending elections--especially presidential elections--and an even partisan division in Congress mitigate representational inequality and boost responsiveness to the preferences of the broader public. At a time when economic and political inequality in the United States only continues to rise, Affluence and Influence raises important questions about whether American democracy is truly responding to the needs of all its citizens.