Exploring and Shaping International Futures

Author: Barry B. Hughes
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1317259866
Format: PDF, ePub, Mobi
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"People who run cities like to play Simcity to find out how impossible their jobs are. Hughes gives everyone a chance to play a kind of Simplanet, with outcomes far more complex and uncertain. In the process, the book and the computer program provide a coherent path to understanding an anarchic world." --Ronald A. Francisco, University of Kansas "What will be the future of human demographic, economic, environmental, and political-social systems throughout the 21st century? Where do current changes appear to be taking us? What kind of future would we prefer? How much leverage do we have to bring about the future we prefer? Do YOU share these interests of the book? If yes, you should study the book and learn how to cope with the future with the International Futures approach (IFs) developed by the authors. This large-scale integrated global simulation modeling system is a user-friendly, professional tool for long-term policy analysis and an educational tool in universities. I had a pleasure to learn it personally by cooperating with Barry Hughes." --Pentti Malaska, Professor of MS, DrTech, futurist Honorary member of the Club of Rome What will be the long-term impact of AIDS in Africa or concentration of global oil production in the Middle East? Exploring and Shaping International Futures helps readers understand such global trends in demographic, economic, energy, food, environmental, and socio-political systems. It allows businesspeople, government officials, and others to think concretely about global futures in each of these areas. It is the only book on the market that allows readers to use a computer simulation to track global trends and to develop alternative scenarios around those trends. It is one of relatively few books that really brings computer technology into the classroom, boardroom, or policy planning commission. The International Futures (IFs) computer simulation, around which the book is built, is now widely used in policy analysis as well as education. It has been instrumental in projects undertaken by such groups as the European Commission, the U.S. National Intelligence Council, and the United Nations. After three decades of development and refinement, the computer model is now easy to access and use. Readers can access the website with the IFs computer model at www.ifs.du.edu

Author: Barry B. Hughes
Publisher: العبيكان للنشر
ISBN: 9960544648
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
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كتاب إرشادي ضروري لفهم الاتجاهات المعاصرة ولرسم المستقبل. ولا يمكن الاستيعاب الكافي والجيد لأي اتجاه اقتصادي أو اجتماعي أو بيئي جيدًا إلا من خلال اندماج هذه الاتجاهات مع بعضها. هذا النظام الواسع ضم أنظمة كلية لإنشاء نماذج محاكية للواقع، وهو سهل الاستخدام وأداة متخصصة لتحليل سياسات بعيدة المدى والتعريف بها. كما ينفرد هذا الكتاب بتغطيته التحولات العالمية التي تصوغ مستقبل العالم مع أساس تطبيقي قوي وفي مجال واسع للطلاب وغيرهم؛ ليقرروا بأنفسهم أين تكون المشكلات؟ وأين الحلول؟ وماذا يجب عمله لكل ذلك ليتحسن مسقبلنا المشترك؟. ويوفر الكتاب مع نموذج الحاسب الآلي لبرنامج IFS اختصارًا مدهشًا لنظريات وبيانات ونمذجة منهجية، كما يقدم بيئة تعليمية رائعة واختبارًا تقويميًا للنزاع حول السياسة العملية.

Der wissenschaftliche Umgang mit Zukunft

Author: Johannes Gabriel
Publisher: Springer-Verlag
ISBN: 3658018755
Format: PDF, Kindle
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Wissenschaft und Zukunft stehen in einem Spannungsfeld zueinander, denn Zukunft lässt sich nicht wissen. Wissenschaft kann nur dann ohne Rückgriff auf Ideologie mit Zukunft umgehen, wenn sie sich nicht auf die Erzeugung von Wissen, sondern auf das Kenntlichmachen von Nicht-Wissen-Können konzentriert und mit plausiblen Gedankenexperimenten anstatt mit vermeintlichen Erklärungen über Zukunft arbeitet. Wenn sich die wissenschaftstheoretischen und –philosophischen Grundlagen derart anpassen lassen, kann der Wissenschaft eine Beurteilung verschiedener Umgangsformen mit Zukunft wie Prognosen und Szenarien gelingen. ​

Energy Economic Growth and Geopolitical Futures

Author: Evan Hillebrand
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 0262028891
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
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Eight varied scenarios, integrating a quantitative model and qualitative analysis, that examine the interplay of three key drivers over the next four decades.

Advancing Global Education

Author: Janet R. Dickson
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1317264185
Format: PDF, ePub, Mobi
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Education is one of the most fundamental prerequisites to economic growth and social stability in the world. It is also one of the most inadequately realised goals of development, with the average education of global adults remaining essentially at primary levels. Advancing Global Education is the second in a series of volumes that explores prospects for human development-how development appears to be unfolding globally and locally, how we would like it to evolve, and how better to assure that we move it in desired directions. The first volume addressed the reduction of global poverty. The third will turn to the enhancement of global health. Advancing Global Education presents the most extensive set of forecasts of global education participation and attainment levels to date-providing and exploring a massive, multi-issue database and proposing a scenario for accelerating educational attainment throughout major world regions and 183 countries.

Long Range Futures Research

Author: Robert H. Samet
Publisher: 4-Scene Development Corpora
ISBN: 1439214344
Format: PDF, Kindle
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This highly readable study explains how complexity science provides an evolutionary model for the civil system, with a new world view that out-ranges United Nations reference scenarios to beyond 2150.

Social Shaping of Digital Publishing

Author: Ana Alice Baptista
Publisher: IOS Press
ISBN: 1614990646
Format: PDF, ePub
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With 23 articles and 10 posters, Elpub 2012 focuses on the social shaping of digital publishing and explores the interplay between culture and technology. This book contains the proceedings of the conference, consisting of 11 accepted full articles and 12 articles accepted as extended abstracts. The articles are presented in groups, and cover the topics: digital scholarship and publishing; special archives; libraries and repositories; digital texts and readings; and future solutions and innovations. Offering an overview of the current situation and exploring the trends of the future, this book will be of interest to all those whose work involves digital publishing.

North and South in the World Political Economy

Author: Rafael Reuveny
Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell
ISBN:
Format: PDF
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A broad yet distinctive analysis of the growing political, economic, and social gap existing between the world’s northern and southern hemispheres. Featuring papers selected by the ISA President from the 2006 annual meeting, this upper-level volume examines the genesis of the North-South divide, the ongoing policy problems between developed and lesser developed states, and how these issues influence current and future world politics. An upper-level text ideal for academic libraries, think tanks, and libraries of policy institutions Organized into three distinct focus clusters: Problems afflicting the global South -- trade, development, financial crises, structural adjustment, democratization, human rights, disease; Specific conflicts between North and South -- energy, terrorism, weak states, nuclear weapon proliferation; Solutions to reduce the North-South gap -- foreign aid programs, global media, democratization, political power in the United Nations, the emerging powers phenomenon, transnational social movements, and Northern foreign policy adjustments Tackles the tough questions likely to dominate international relations discourse for decades to come

Die Vierte Industrielle Revolution

Author: Klaus Schwab
Publisher: Pantheon Verlag
ISBN: 3641203171
Format: PDF, Docs
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Die größte Herausforderung unserer Zeit Ob selbstfahrende Autos, 3-D-Drucker oder Künstliche Intelligenz: Aktuelle technische Entwicklungen werden unsere Art zu leben und zu arbeiten grundlegend verändern. Die Vierte Industrielle Revolution hat bereits begonnen. Ihr Merkmal ist die ungeheuer schnelle und systematische Verschmelzung von Technologien, die die Grenzen zwischen der physischen, der digitalen und der biologischen Welt immer stärker durchbrechen. Wie kein anderer ist Klaus Schwab, der Vorsitzende des Weltwirtschaftsforums, in der Lage aufzuzeigen, welche politischen, wirtschaftlichen, sozialen und kulturellen Herausforderungen diese Revolution für uns alle mit sich bringt.