Foresight

Author: Denis Loveridge
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1134151179
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
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Since the early 1990s interest in foresight has undergone one of its periodic resurgences and has led to a rapid growth in formal foresight studies backed by governments and transnational institutions, including many from the United Nations. However, texts that counterbalance in depth practical experience with an exposition and integration of the many theoretical strands that underpin the art and theory of foresight are rare. Foresight: The Art and Science of Anticipating the Future provides entrepreneurs, business leaders, investors, inventors, scientists, politicians, and many others with a succinct, integrated guide to understanding foresight studies and using them as means for strategy development. The text dispels the belief that anticipations are 'mere guesswork', and conveys the depth of thought needed, implicitly or explicitly, to understand human foresight. The book examines: The role of foresight and its institutional counterpart in the modern world The epistemology underlying foresight The need to extend foresight activity into wider spheres, including sustainable development The role that foresight plays in planning processes (including scenario planning) Much of the material in the book is based upon the internationally known foresight course at the Manchester Business School's Institute of Innovation Research (MIoIR) formerly PREST, which the author developed and directed from1999 to 2003.

Anticipating Future Innovation Pathways Through Large Data Analysis

Author: Tugrul U. Daim
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319390562
Format: PDF, Mobi
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This book aims to identify promising future developmental opportunities and applications for Tech Mining. Specifically, the enclosed contributions will pursue three converging themes: The increasing availability of electronic text data resources relating to Science, Technology and Innovation (ST&I). The multiple methods that are able to treat this data effectively and incorporate means to tap into human expertise and interests. Translating those analyses to provide useful intelligence on likely future developments of particular emerging S&T targets. Tech Mining can be defined as text analyses of ST&I information resources to generate Competitive Technical Intelligence (CTI). It combines bibliometrics and advanced text analytic, drawing on specialized knowledge pertaining to ST&I. Tech Mining may also be viewed as a special form of “Big Data” analytics because it searches on a target emerging technology (or key organization) of interest in global databases. One then downloads, typically, thousands of field-structured text records (usually abstracts), and analyses those for useful CTI. Forecasting Innovation Pathways (FIP) is a methodology drawing on Tech Mining plus additional steps to elicit stakeholder and expert knowledge to link recent ST&I activity to likely future development. A decade ago, we demeaned Management of Technology (MOT) as somewhat self-satisfied and ignorant. Most technology managers relied overwhelmingly on casual human judgment, largely oblivious of the potential of empirical analyses to inform R&D management and science policy. CTI, Tech Mining, and FIP are changing that. The accumulation of Tech Mining research over the past decade offers a rich resource of means to get at emerging technology developments and organizational networks to date. Efforts to bridge from those recent histories of development to project likely FIP, however, prove considerably harder. One focus of this volume is to extend the repertoire of information resources; that will enrich FIP. Featuring cases of novel approaches and applications of Tech Mining and FIP, this volume will present frontier advances in ST&I text analytics that will be of interest to students, researchers, practitioners, scholars and policy makers in the fields of R&D planning, technology management, science policy and innovation strategy.

Introduction to Anticipation Studies

Author: Roberto Poli
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319630237
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
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This book presents the theory of anticipation, and establishes anticipation of the future as a legitimate topic of research. It examines anticipatory behavior, i.e. a behavior that ‘uses’ the future in its actual decisional process. The book shows that anticipation violates neither the ontological order of time nor causation. It explores the question of how different kinds of systems anticipate, and examines the risks and uses of such anticipatory practices. The book first summarizes the research on anticipation conducted within a range of different disciplines, and describes the connection between the anticipatory point of view and futures studies. Following that, its chapters on Wholes, Time and Emergence, make explicit the ontological framework within which anticipation finds its place. It then goes on to discuss Systems, Complexity, and the Modeling Relation, and provides the scientific background supporting anticipation. It restricts formal technicalities to one chapter, and presents those technicalities twice, in formal and plain words to advance understanding. The final chapter shows that all the threads presented in the previous chapters naturally converge toward what has come to be called “Discipline of Anticipation”

Foresight and Innovation

Author: E. Hiltunen
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 1137337702
Format: PDF, ePub
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Foresight and Innovation is a guide for readers that are interested about the future. The book introduces a concept of futurist thinking, which includes anticipating, innovating and communicating about the futures. These concepts show how various organizations, all over the world are thinking, communicating and creating a better future.

Anticipate

Author: Rob-Jan Jong
Publisher: AMACOM
ISBN: 0814449085
Format: PDF
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Business schools, leadership gurus, and strategy guides agree-leaders must have a vision. But the sad truth is that most don't...or at least not one that compels, inspires, and energizes their people. How can something so essential be practiced so little in real life? Vision may sound like a rare quality, unattainable by all except a select few-but nothing could be further from the truth. Anyone can expand their visionary capacity. You just need to learn how. In Anticipate, strategy and leadership expert Rob-Jan de Jong explains that to develop vision you must sharpen two key skills. The first is the ability to see things early-spotting the first hints of change on the horizon. The second is the power to connect the dots-turning those clues into a gripping story about the future of your organization and industry. Packed with stories and practices, Anticipate provides proven techniques for looking ahead and exploring many plausible futures-including the author's trademarked FuturePriming process, which helps distinguish signal from noise. You will discover how to: Tap into your imagination and open yourself to the unconventional * Become better at seeing things early * Frame the big-picture view that provides direction for the future * Communicate your vision in a way that engages others and provokes action * And more When you anticipate change before your competitors, you create enormous strategic advantage. That's what visionaries do...and now so can you.

Transforming the Future Open Access

Author: Riel Miller
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1351047981
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
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People are using the future to search for better ways to achieve sustainability, inclusiveness, prosperity, well-being and peace. In addition, the way the future is understood and used is changing in almost all domains, from social science to daily life. This book presents the results of significant research undertaken by UNESCO with a number of partners to detect and define the theory and practice of anticipation around the world today. It uses the concept of ‘Futures Literacy’ as a tool to define the understanding of anticipatory systems and processes – also known as the Discipline of Anticipation. This innovative title explores: •?new topics such as Futures Literacy and the Discipline of Anticipation; • the evidence collected from over 30 Futures Literacy Laboratories and presented in 14 full case studies; •?the need and opportunity for significant innovation in human decision-making systems. This book will be of great interest to scholars, researchers, policy-makers and students, as well as activists working on sustainability issues and innovation, future studies and anticipation studies.

Strategic Foresight

Author: A. Marcus
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 0230622658
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
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This book provides students and line managers in organizations with the means to create better scenarios and to use them to create winning business strategies. The book covers scenarios such as: economic outlooks; political environments; acquisitions; downsizing, and more.

Future Inc

Author: Eric Garland
Publisher: AMACOM Div American Mgmt Assn
ISBN: 9780814408971
Format: PDF, Mobi
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Foreword by Joseph Coates In the next 50 years, new technologies, shifting global economics, and many other factors will present innumerable changes for business and society to navigate. Starting now, leaders need to be more flexible, responsive, and decisive than ever before. Unfortunately, most people are not trained in the type of critical thinking required to anticipate what lies ahead. This groundbreaking book will change that. Futuring is not a matter of tea leaves and crystal balls -- it is a rigorous science based on time-tested analytical methods. Future, Inc. translates the proven techniques of professional futurists into accessible language and shows how to: * identify what is and what isn't changing at a given time, and how even small changes will affect whole businesses * use forecasting -- not ""predictions"" -- to pinpoint tomorrow's realities by looking at today's trends * employ scenarios to test the validity of potential strategies The author illustrates his advice with examples of companies whose foresight has given them an unparalleled advantage and identifies significant trends that will impact businesses in the future. Companies can't afford to be caught unaware. In order to survive and succeed, they need to look ahead. Future, Inc. provides the tools to bring the future into focus.

4 Steps to the Future

Author: Richard Lum
Publisher: FutureScribe
ISBN: 9780997278309
Format: PDF, ePub, Mobi
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This practical guide offers a straight forward and step-by-step approach to developing foresight for organizations of all types. Providing a simple model that can be expanded and adapted as needed, this book introduces the fundamentals of good futures thinking in a four step process complete with ready-to-use worksheets, clear process steps, and checklists for good daily habits and critical assessments.

Think Like a Futurist

Author: Cecily Sommers
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118147820
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
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Filled with an array of tools and models for a new world, this resource shows business leaders how to track changes, explore questions, and engage in a new way of thinking to plan ahead for social, economic, and environmental crises.