Foresight

Author: Denis Loveridge
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1134151179
Format: PDF, Kindle
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Since the early 1990s interest in foresight has undergone one of its periodic resurgences and has led to a rapid growth in formal foresight studies backed by governments and transnational institutions, including many from the United Nations. However, texts that counterbalance in depth practical experience with an exposition and integration of the many theoretical strands that underpin the art and theory of foresight are rare. Foresight: The Art and Science of Anticipating the Future provides entrepreneurs, business leaders, investors, inventors, scientists, politicians, and many others with a succinct, integrated guide to understanding foresight studies and using them as means for strategy development. The text dispels the belief that anticipations are 'mere guesswork', and conveys the depth of thought needed, implicitly or explicitly, to understand human foresight. The book examines: The role of foresight and its institutional counterpart in the modern world The epistemology underlying foresight The need to extend foresight activity into wider spheres, including sustainable development The role that foresight plays in planning processes (including scenario planning) Much of the material in the book is based upon the internationally known foresight course at the Manchester Business School's Institute of Innovation Research (MIoIR) formerly PREST, which the author developed and directed from1999 to 2003.

Anticipating Future Innovation Pathways Through Large Data Analysis

Author: Tugrul U. Daim
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319390562
Format: PDF, ePub
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This book aims to identify promising future developmental opportunities and applications for Tech Mining. Specifically, the enclosed contributions will pursue three converging themes: The increasing availability of electronic text data resources relating to Science, Technology and Innovation (ST&I). The multiple methods that are able to treat this data effectively and incorporate means to tap into human expertise and interests. Translating those analyses to provide useful intelligence on likely future developments of particular emerging S&T targets. Tech Mining can be defined as text analyses of ST&I information resources to generate Competitive Technical Intelligence (CTI). It combines bibliometrics and advanced text analytic, drawing on specialized knowledge pertaining to ST&I. Tech Mining may also be viewed as a special form of “Big Data” analytics because it searches on a target emerging technology (or key organization) of interest in global databases. One then downloads, typically, thousands of field-structured text records (usually abstracts), and analyses those for useful CTI. Forecasting Innovation Pathways (FIP) is a methodology drawing on Tech Mining plus additional steps to elicit stakeholder and expert knowledge to link recent ST&I activity to likely future development. A decade ago, we demeaned Management of Technology (MOT) as somewhat self-satisfied and ignorant. Most technology managers relied overwhelmingly on casual human judgment, largely oblivious of the potential of empirical analyses to inform R&D management and science policy. CTI, Tech Mining, and FIP are changing that. The accumulation of Tech Mining research over the past decade offers a rich resource of means to get at emerging technology developments and organizational networks to date. Efforts to bridge from those recent histories of development to project likely FIP, however, prove considerably harder. One focus of this volume is to extend the repertoire of information resources; that will enrich FIP. Featuring cases of novel approaches and applications of Tech Mining and FIP, this volume will present frontier advances in ST&I text analytics that will be of interest to students, researchers, practitioners, scholars and policy makers in the fields of R&D planning, technology management, science policy and innovation strategy.

Foresight for Science Technology and Innovation

Author: Ian Miles
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319325744
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
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​Decision-makers at all levels are being confronted with novel complexities and uncertainties and face long-term challenges which require foresight about long-term future prospects, assumptions, and strategies. This book explores how foresight studies can be systematically undertaken and used in this context. It explicates why and how methods like horizon scanning, scenario planning, and roadmapping should be applied when dealing with high levels of uncertainty. The scope of the book moves beyond “narrow” technology foresight, towards addressing systemic interrelations between social, technological, economic, environmental, and political systems. Applications of foresight tools to such fields as energy, cities, health, transportation, education, and sustainability are considered as well as enabling technologies including nano-, bio-, and information technologies and cognitive sciences. The approaches will be illustrated with specific actual cases.

Introduction to Anticipation Studies

Author: Roberto Poli
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319630237
Format: PDF, Mobi
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This book presents the theory of anticipation, and establishes anticipation of the future as a legitimate topic of research. It examines anticipatory behavior, i.e. a behavior that ‘uses’ the future in its actual decisional process. The book shows that anticipation violates neither the ontological order of time nor causation. It explores the question of how different kinds of systems anticipate, and examines the risks and uses of such anticipatory practices. The book first summarizes the research on anticipation conducted within a range of different disciplines, and describes the connection between the anticipatory point of view and futures studies. Following that, its chapters on Wholes, Time and Emergence, make explicit the ontological framework within which anticipation finds its place. It then goes on to discuss Systems, Complexity, and the Modeling Relation, and provides the scientific background supporting anticipation. It restricts formal technicalities to one chapter, and presents those technicalities twice, in formal and plain words to advance understanding. The final chapter shows that all the threads presented in the previous chapters naturally converge toward what has come to be called “Discipline of Anticipation”

Transforming the Future Open Access

Author: Riel Miller
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1351047981
Format: PDF, Mobi
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People are using the future to search for better ways to achieve sustainability, inclusiveness, prosperity, well-being and peace. In addition, the way the future is understood and used is changing in almost all domains, from social science to daily life. This book presents the results of significant research undertaken by UNESCO with a number of partners to detect and define the theory and practice of anticipation around the world today. It uses the concept of ‘Futures Literacy’ as a tool to define the understanding of anticipatory systems and processes – also known as the Discipline of Anticipation. This innovative title explores: •?new topics such as Futures Literacy and the Discipline of Anticipation; • the evidence collected from over 30 Futures Literacy Laboratories and presented in 14 full case studies; •?the need and opportunity for significant innovation in human decision-making systems. This book will be of great interest to scholars, researchers, policy-makers and students, as well as activists working on sustainability issues and innovation, future studies and anticipation studies.

Anticipate

Author: Rob-Jan Jong
Publisher: AMACOM
ISBN: 0814449085
Format: PDF, Mobi
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Business schools, leadership gurus, and strategy guides agree-leaders must have a vision. But the sad truth is that most don't...or at least not one that compels, inspires, and energizes their people. How can something so essential be practiced so little in real life? Vision may sound like a rare quality, unattainable by all except a select few-but nothing could be further from the truth. Anyone can expand their visionary capacity. You just need to learn how. In Anticipate, strategy and leadership expert Rob-Jan de Jong explains that to develop vision you must sharpen two key skills. The first is the ability to see things early-spotting the first hints of change on the horizon. The second is the power to connect the dots-turning those clues into a gripping story about the future of your organization and industry. Packed with stories and practices, Anticipate provides proven techniques for looking ahead and exploring many plausible futures-including the author's trademarked FuturePriming process, which helps distinguish signal from noise. You will discover how to: Tap into your imagination and open yourself to the unconventional * Become better at seeing things early * Frame the big-picture view that provides direction for the future * Communicate your vision in a way that engages others and provokes action * And more When you anticipate change before your competitors, you create enormous strategic advantage. That's what visionaries do...and now so can you.

Reinventing Art of Everyday Making

Author: Terttu Tuomi-Gröhn
Publisher: Peter Lang
ISBN: 9783631571132
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
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The word ‘everyday‘ is usually loaded with decidedly negative connotations. However, domestic everyday activities are not merely routine work, but also include complex, demanding tasks to solve. Even though everyday problem solving does not necessarily follow logical pathways, it is sensible and effective in handling practical problems. The studies presented in this book explore domestic everyday making, in terms of the kinds of cognitive, social, and practical tasks being faced and the types of skills needed in solving these tasks. The studies also illustrate the different research strategies appropriate to the investigation of the art and skills of domestic everyday making. The target audience of this book includes researchers and students of family and consumer studies, home economics and craft sciences, cultural studies and sociology. Because of the twofold aim of the book, it can be used as a textbook for both content as well as methodological studies.

Foresight and Innovation

Author: E. Hiltunen
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 1137337702
Format: PDF, Docs
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Foresight and Innovation is a guide for readers that are interested about the future. The book introduces a concept of futurist thinking, which includes anticipating, innovating and communicating about the futures. These concepts show how various organizations, all over the world are thinking, communicating and creating a better future.

Futuring

Author: Edward Cornish
Publisher: World Future Society
ISBN: 9780930242572
Format: PDF, Docs
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4 Steps to the Future

Author: Richard Lum
Publisher: FutureScribe
ISBN: 9780997278309
Format: PDF
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This practical guide offers a straight forward and step-by-step approach to developing foresight for organizations of all types. Providing a simple model that can be expanded and adapted as needed, this book introduces the fundamentals of good futures thinking in a four step process complete with ready-to-use worksheets, clear process steps, and checklists for good daily habits and critical assessments.