Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices

Author: Mr. Aasim M. Husain
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 151357227X
Format: PDF, ePub
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The sharp drop in oil prices is one of the most important global economic developments over the past year. The SDN finds that (i) supply factors have played a somewhat larger role than demand factors in driving the oil price drop, (ii) a substantial part of the price decline is expected to persist into the medium term, although there is large uncertainty, (iii) lower oil prices will support global growth, (iv) the sharp oil price drop could still trigger financial strains, and (v) policy responses should depend on the terms-of-trade impact, fiscal and external vulnerabilities, and domestic cyclical position.

Oil Prices and the Global Economy

Author: Mr.Rabah Arezki
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 147557780X
Format: PDF, Mobi
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This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model of the oil market. The model incorporates features of oil supply such as depletion, endogenous oil exploration and extraction, as well as features of oil demand such as the secular increase in demand from emerging-market economies, usage efficiency, and endogenous demand responses. The model provides, inter alia, a useful analytical framework to explore the effects of: a change in world GDP growth; a change in the efficiency of oil usage; and a change in the supply of oil. Notwithstanding that shale oil production today is more responsive to prices than conventional oil, our analysis suggests that an era of prolonged low oil prices is likely to be followed by a period where oil prices overshoot their long-term upward trend.

Crude Volatility

Author: Robert McNally
Publisher: Columbia University Press
ISBN: 0231543689
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
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Oil is the lifeblood of modern civilization, ranking alongside food as one of our most critical commodities. It drives geopolitical, economic, and financial affairs, as well as environmental debates and policymaking. As the place of oil in our global economy has evolved, so too has the way we buy and sell it, with rudimentary transactions at the wellhead developing into a sophisticated and complex global market. Yet while today’s oil market bears little resemblance to the one born in the valleys and creeks of western Pennsylvania more than 150 years ago, one core feature remains: a natural tendency toward boom and bust price cycles that can devastate economies, trigger or prolong recessions, and undermine growth and investment. Tracing a history marked with conflict, intrigue, and extreme uncertainty, Robert McNally shows how—even from the very first years of the market—wild volatility in oil prices led to intensive efforts to stabilize price fluctuations and manage supply. First Rockefeller’s Standard Oil, then U.S. state regulators along with major international oil companies, and finally OPEC each enjoyed varying degrees of success in the pursuit of oil price stability. But the spectacular boom of 2008 and bust of 2015 have revealed a structural shift back to extreme oil price swings, the likes of which haven’t been seen for nearly a century. Crafting an engrossing journey from the gushing New England oil fields to the fraught and fractious Middle East, Crude Volatility provides a crucial perspective that discards distractions and tired myths, shows lessons learned from prior mistakes, and provides the historical foundation we need to face, understand, and surmount the challenges ahead.

Slowdown in the People s Republic of China

Author: Justin Yifu Lin
Publisher: Asian Development Bank
ISBN: 9784899740773
Format: PDF, Kindle
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The economy of the People's Republic of China (PRC) has surged almost 10% annually since economic reforms began in 1978, ensuring the PRC's position as an engine of global growth. But by 2016 growth slowed to less than 7%. Is it a structural or cyclical slowdown? If structural, the implications for growth, trade, and investment in other Asian economies will be significant. This book (i) explains the long-term slowdown in advanced Asian economies and what it means for the PRC; (ii) assesses the structural factors shaping the PRC economy and how they will influence its growth over the next decade; (iii) shows how growth, trade, investment, and employment in emerging Asian economies could be impacted; and (iv) evaluates policies that could offset some of the negative factors.

Taking Stock

Author: Diego A. Cerdeiro
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475598505
Format: PDF, ePub
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The effect that the recent decline in the price of oil has had on growth is far from clear, with many observers at odds to explain why it does not seem to have provided a significant boost to the world economy. This paper aims to address this puzzle by providing a systematic analysis of the effect of oil price shocks on growth for 72 countries comprising 92.8% of world GDP. We find that, on net, shocks driving the oil price in 2015 shaved off 0.2 percentage points of growth for the median country in our sample, and 0.17 percentage points in GDP-weighted terms. While increases in oil supply and shocks to oil-specific demand actually boosted growth in 2015 (by about 0.2 and 0.4 percentage points, respectively), weak global demand more than offset these gains, reducing growth by 0.8 percentage points. Counterfactual simulations for the 72 countries in our sample underscore the importance of diversification, rather than low levels of openness, in shielding against negative shocks to the world economy.

The Price of Oil

Author: Roberto F. Aguilera
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1316432424
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
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Drawing on their extensive knowledge of the oil industry, Roberto F. Aguilera and Marian Radetzki provide an in-depth examination of the price of the world's most important commodity. They argue that although oil has experienced an extraordinary price increase over the past few decades, we have now reached a turning point where scarcity, uncertain supply and high prices will be replaced by abundance, undisturbed availability and suppressed price levels. They look at the potential of new global oil revolutions to bring the upward price push to an end and examine the implications of this turnaround for the world economy, as well as for politics, diplomacy, military interventions and the efforts to stabilize climate. This book will appeal to a wide readership of both academics and professionals working in the energy industry, as well as to general readers interested in the ongoing debate about oil prices.

Innovation in Energy Law and Technology

Author: Donald Zillman
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0198822081
Format: PDF, ePub
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As energy innovation becomes imperative for the environment and energy security, the law must be fleet-footed to evolve in an unwieldy area of policy. This much-needed text assembles experts to analyse the most recent developments, and to postulate how human rights, sustainable development, and the eradication of energy poverty could be achieved.

Welfare Gains from Market Insurance The Case of Mexican Oil Price Risk

Author: Chang Ma
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484344316
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
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Over the past two decades, Mexico has hedged oil price risk through the purchase of put options. We examine the resulting welfare gains using a standard sovereign default model calibrated to Mexican data. We show that hedging increases welfare by reducing income volatility and reducing risk spreads on sovereign debt. We find welfare gains equivalent to a permanent increase in consumption of 0.44 percent with 90 percent of these gains stemming from lower risk spreads.

The Frackers

Author: Gregory Zuckerman
Publisher: Penguin
ISBN: 1591847095
Format: PDF, ePub, Mobi
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The riveting, untold story of the men who are transforming global energy. In five years, the United States has seen a historic burst of oil and natural gas production, easing our insatiable hunger for energy. A new drilling process called fracking has made us the world's fastest growing energy power, on track to pass Saudi Arabia by 2020. But despite headlines and controversy, no previous book has shown how the revolution really happened. The Frackers tells the dramatic tale of how a group of ambitious and headstrong wildcatters ignored the ridicule of experts and derision of colleagues to pursue massive, long-overlooked deposits. Against all odds, they changed the world-and made astonishing fortunes in the process. Zuckerman's exclusive access enabled him to get close to men like George Mitchell, who developed a new way to drill for gas in shale rock; Harold Hamm, who discovered so much oil he's now worth more than the estate of Steve Jobs; and Aubrey McClendon, who lost more than $2 billion on a misguided gambit. Zuckerman shows how the frackers are now using their wealth to shake up Hollywood, education, politics, sports, and other fields, much like the Rockefellers and Gettys before them. He also explores the debate over the environmental risks of fracking, and whether those risks are worth it for the United States to achieve energy independence and for the rest of the world to follow.

Mitigating Vulnerability to High and Volatile Oil Prices

Author: Rigoberto Ariel Yépez-García
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 0821395785
Format: PDF, Docs
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This book addresses the need of oil-importing countries to mitigate vulnerability to oil price volatility. It offers financial instruments to manage price risk, complemented by structural measures designed to reduce oil consumption.