Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices

Author: Mr. Aasim M. Husain
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 151357227X
Format: PDF, Docs
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The sharp drop in oil prices is one of the most important global economic developments over the past year. The SDN finds that (i) supply factors have played a somewhat larger role than demand factors in driving the oil price drop, (ii) a substantial part of the price decline is expected to persist into the medium term, although there is large uncertainty, (iii) lower oil prices will support global growth, (iv) the sharp oil price drop could still trigger financial strains, and (v) policy responses should depend on the terms-of-trade impact, fiscal and external vulnerabilities, and domestic cyclical position.

Oil Prices and the Global Economy

Author: Mr.Rabah Arezki
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 147557780X
Format: PDF
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This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model of the oil market. The model incorporates features of oil supply such as depletion, endogenous oil exploration and extraction, as well as features of oil demand such as the secular increase in demand from emerging-market economies, usage efficiency, and endogenous demand responses. The model provides, inter alia, a useful analytical framework to explore the effects of: a change in world GDP growth; a change in the efficiency of oil usage; and a change in the supply of oil. Notwithstanding that shale oil production today is more responsive to prices than conventional oil, our analysis suggests that an era of prolonged low oil prices is likely to be followed by a period where oil prices overshoot their long-term upward trend.

Crude Volatility

Author: Robert McNally
Publisher: Columbia University Press
ISBN: 0231543689
Format: PDF, Docs
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As OPEC has loosened its grip over the past ten years, the oil market has been rocked by wild price swings, the likes of which haven't been seen for eight decades. Crafting an engrossing journey from the gushing Pennsylvania oil fields of the 1860s to today's fraught and fractious Middle East, Crude Volatility explains how past periods of stability and volatility in oil prices help us understand the new boom-bust era. Oil's notorious volatility has always been considered a scourge afflicting not only the oil industry but also the broader economy and geopolitical landscape; Robert McNally makes sense of how oil became so central to our world and why it is subject to such extreme price fluctuations. Tracing a history marked by conflict, intrigue, and extreme uncertainty, McNally shows how—even from the oil industry's first years—wild and harmful price volatility prompted industry leaders and officials to undertake extraordinary efforts to stabilize oil prices by controlling production. Herculean market interventions—first, by Rockefeller's Standard Oil, then, by U.S. state regulators in partnership with major international oil companies, and, finally, by OPEC—succeeded to varying degrees in taming the beast. McNally, a veteran oil market and policy expert, explains the consequences of the ebbing of OPEC's power, debunking myths and offering recommendations—including mistakes to avoid—as we confront the unwelcome return of boom and bust oil prices.

Innovation in Energy Law and Technology

Author: Donald Zillman
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0198822081
Format: PDF, ePub, Mobi
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As energy innovation becomes imperative for the environment and energy security, the law must be fleet-footed to evolve in an unwieldy area of policy. This much-needed text assembles experts to analyse the most recent developments, and to postulate how human rights, sustainable development, and the eradication of energy poverty could be achieved.

Welfare Gains from Market Insurance The Case of Mexican Oil Price Risk

Author: Chang Ma
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484344316
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
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Over the past two decades, Mexico has hedged oil price risk through the purchase of put options. We examine the resulting welfare gains using a standard sovereign default model calibrated to Mexican data. We show that hedging increases welfare by reducing income volatility and reducing risk spreads on sovereign debt. We find welfare gains equivalent to a permanent increase in consumption of 0.44 percent with 90 percent of these gains stemming from lower risk spreads.

The Price of Oil

Author: Roberto F. Aguilera
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1316432424
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
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Drawing on their extensive knowledge of the oil industry, Roberto F. Aguilera and Marian Radetzki provide an in-depth examination of the price of the world's most important commodity. They argue that although oil has experienced an extraordinary price increase over the past few decades, we have now reached a turning point where scarcity, uncertain supply and high prices will be replaced by abundance, undisturbed availability and suppressed price levels. They look at the potential of new global oil revolutions to bring the upward price push to an end and examine the implications of this turnaround for the world economy, as well as for politics, diplomacy, military interventions and the efforts to stabilize climate. This book will appeal to a wide readership of both academics and professionals working in the energy industry, as well as to general readers interested in the ongoing debate about oil prices.

The Frackers

Author: Gregory Zuckerman
Publisher: Penguin
ISBN: 1591847095
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
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The riveting, untold story of the men who are transforming global energy. In five years, the United States has seen a historic burst of oil and natural gas production, easing our insatiable hunger for energy. A new drilling process called fracking has made us the world's fastest growing energy power, on track to pass Saudi Arabia by 2020. But despite headlines and controversy, no previous book has shown how the revolution really happened. The Frackers tells the dramatic tale of how a group of ambitious and headstrong wildcatters ignored the ridicule of experts and derision of colleagues to pursue massive, long-overlooked deposits. Against all odds, they changed the world-and made astonishing fortunes in the process. Zuckerman's exclusive access enabled him to get close to men like George Mitchell, who developed a new way to drill for gas in shale rock; Harold Hamm, who discovered so much oil he's now worth more than the estate of Steve Jobs; and Aubrey McClendon, who lost more than $2 billion on a misguided gambit. Zuckerman shows how the frackers are now using their wealth to shake up Hollywood, education, politics, sports, and other fields, much like the Rockefellers and Gettys before them. He also explores the debate over the environmental risks of fracking, and whether those risks are worth it for the United States to achieve energy independence and for the rest of the world to follow.

Slowdown in the People s Republic of China

Author: Justin Yifu Lin
Publisher: Asian Development Bank
ISBN: 9784899740773
Format: PDF, Mobi
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The economy of the People's Republic of China (PRC) has surged almost 10% annually since economic reforms began in 1978, ensuring the PRC's position as an engine of global growth. But by 2016 growth slowed to less than 7%. Is it a structural or cyclical slowdown? If structural, the implications for growth, trade, and investment in other Asian economies will be significant. This book (i) explains the long-term slowdown in advanced Asian economies and what it means for the PRC; (ii) assesses the structural factors shaping the PRC economy and how they will influence its growth over the next decade; (iii) shows how growth, trade, investment, and employment in emerging Asian economies could be impacted; and (iv) evaluates policies that could offset some of the negative factors.

Mitigating Vulnerability to High and Volatile Oil Prices

Author: Rigoberto Ariel Yépez-García
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 0821395785
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
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This book addresses the need of oil-importing countries to mitigate vulnerability to oil price volatility. It offers financial instruments to manage price risk, complemented by structural measures designed to reduce oil consumption.