Introduction to Financial Forecasting in Investment Analysis

Author: John B. Guerard, Jr.
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1461452392
Format: PDF
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Forecasting—the art and science of predicting future outcomes—has become a crucial skill in business and economic analysis. This volume introduces the reader to the tools, methods, and techniques of forecasting, specifically as they apply to financial and investing decisions. With an emphasis on "earnings per share" (eps), the author presents a data-oriented text on financial forecasting, understanding financial data, assessing firm financial strategies (such as share buybacks and R&D spending), creating efficient portfolios, and hedging stock portfolios with financial futures. The opening chapters explain how to understand economic fluctuations and how the stock market leads the general economic trend; introduce the concept of portfolio construction and how movements in the economy influence stock price movements; and introduce the reader to the forecasting process, including exponential smoothing and time series model estimations. Subsequent chapters examine the composite index of leading economic indicators (LEI); review financial statement analysis and mean-variance efficient portfolios; and assess the effectiveness of analysts’ earnings forecasts. Using data from such firms as Intel, General Electric, and Hitachi, Guerard demonstrates how forecasting tools can be applied to understand the business cycle, evaluate market risk, and demonstrate the impact of global stock selection modeling and portfolio construction.

Financial Forecasting Analysis and Modelling

Author: Michael Samonas
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118921100
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
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Risk analysis has become critical to modern financial planning Financial Forecasting, Analysis and Modelling provides a complete framework of long-term financial forecasts in a practical and accessible way, helping finance professionals include uncertainty in their planning and budgeting process. With thorough coverage of financial statement simulation models and clear, concise implementation instruction, this book guides readers step-by-step through the entire projection plan development process. Readers learn the tools, techniques, and special considerations that increase accuracy and smooth the workflow, and develop a more robust analysis process that improves financial strategy. The companion website provides a complete operational model that can be customised to develop financial projections or a range of other key financial measures, giving readers an immediately-applicable tool to facilitate effective decision-making. In the aftermath of the recent financial crisis, the need for experienced financial modelling professionals has steadily increased as organisations rush to adjust to economic volatility and uncertainty. This book provides the deeper level of understanding needed to develop stronger financial planning, with techniques tailored to real-life situations. Develop long-term projection plans using Excel Use appropriate models to develop a more proactive strategy Apply risk and uncertainty projections more accurately Master the Excel Scenario Manager, Sensitivity Analysis, Monte Carlo Simulation, and more Risk plays a larger role in financial planning than ever before, and possible outcomes must be measured before decisions are made. Uncertainty has become a critical component in financial planning, and accuracy demands it be used appropriately. With special focus on uncertainty in modelling and planning, Financial Forecasting, Analysis and Modelling is a comprehensive guide to the mechanics of modern finance.

Financial Analysis Planning amp Forecasting

Author: John C Lee
Publisher: World Scientific Publishing Company
ISBN: 981472386X
Format: PDF, Kindle
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This book is an introduction-level text that reviews, discusses, and integrates both theoretical and practical corporate analysis and planning. The field can be divided into five parts: (1) Information and Methodology for Financial Analysis; (2) Alternative Finance Theories and Cost of Capital; (3) Capital Budgeting and Leasing Decisions; (4) Corporate Policies and their Interrelationships; (5) Financial Planning and Forecasting. The theories used and discussed in this book can be grouped into the following classical theoretical areas of corporate finance: (1) Pre-M&M Theory, (2) M&M Theory, (3) CAPM, and (4) Option Pricing Theory (OPT). The interrelationships among these theories are carefully analyzed. Real world examples are used to enrich the learning experience; and alternative planning and forecasting models are used to show how the interdisciplinary approach can be used to make meaningful financial-management decisions. In this third edition, we have extensively updated and expanded the topics of financial analysis, planning and forecasting. New chapters were added, and some chapters combined to present a holistic view of the subject and much of the data revised and updated.

Introduction to Financial Models for Management and Planning Second Edition

Author: James R. Morris
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1498765068
Format: PDF
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A properly structured financial model can provide decision makers with a powerful planning tool that helps them identify the consequences of their decisions before they are put into practice. Introduction to Financial Models for Management and Planning, Second Edition enables professionals and students to learn how to develop and use computer-based models for financial planning. This volume provides critical tools for the financial toolbox, then shows how to use them tools to build successful models.

Financial Analysis and Control

Author: Alan Birchall
Publisher: Butterworth-Heinemann
ISBN: 1483135705
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
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Financial Analysis and Control: Financial Awareness for Students and Managers discusses the analytical aspects of accounting. The book is comprised of 19 chapters that discuss the various concerns in analyzing accounting variables. The coverage of the text includes classwork examples and course-work case studies for topics, such as ration analysis, cash forecasting, and break-even analysis. The book also discusses pricing related topics including pricing policies, transfer pricing, and marginal cost approach to pricing. The text will be of great use to students and practitioners of accounting and financial managers. Entrepreneurs will also benefit from the book.

Cash Flow Analysis and Forecasting

Author: Timothy Jury
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119968747
Format: PDF
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This book is the definitive guide to cash flow statement analysis and forecasting. It takes the reader from an introduction about how cash flows move within a business, through to a detailed review of the contents of a cash flow statement. This is followed by detailed guidance on how to restate cash flows into a template format. The book shows how to use the template to analyse the data from start up, growth, mature and declining companies, and those using US GAAP and IAS reporting. The book includes real world examples from such companies as Black and Decker (US), Fiat (Italy) and Tesco (UK). A section on cash flow forecasting includes full coverage of spreadsheet risk and good practice. Complete with chapters of particular interest to those involved in credit markets as lenders or counter-parties, those running businesses and those in equity investing, this book is the definitive guide to understanding and interpreting cash flow data.

Quantitative Financial Analytics

Author: Edward E Williams
Publisher: World Scientific Publishing Company
ISBN: 9813224274
Format: PDF, Mobi
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This book provides a comprehensive treatment of the important aspects of investment theory, security analysis, and portfolio selection, with a quantitative emphasis not to be found in most other investment texts. The statistical analysis framework of markets and institutions in the book meets the need for advanced undergraduates and graduate students in quantitative disciplines, who wish to apply their craft to the world of investments. In addition, entrepreneurs will find the volume to be especially useful. It also contains a clearly detailed explanation of many recent developments in portfolio and capital market theory as well as a thorough procedural discussion of security analysis. Professionals preparing for the CPA, CFA, and or CFP examinations will also benefit from a close scrutiny of the many problems following each chapter. The level of difficulty progresses through the textbook with more advanced treatment appearing in the latter sections of each chapter, and the last chapters of the volume. Contents: The Challenge: Can You Attain Wealth in Today's Investment Environment?Financial MathematicsThe Securities Markets and MacroeconomicsFinancial Statement AnalysisForecasting TechniquesAnalysis and Fixed Income SecuritiesAnalysis of Common StocksFutures and OptionsRisk, Uncertainty, Utility and Portfolio TheoryCapital Market Theory, Efficiency, and Imperfections Readership: Academics, students, entrepreneurs and business operators interested in investment theory, security analysis, and portfolio theory and selection, as well as professionals preparing for the CPA, CFA, and or CFP examinations.

Brilliant Budgets and Forecasts

Author: Malcolm Secrett
Publisher: Pearson UK
ISBN: 0273746790
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
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Writing spreadsheets, budgets and forecasts is an important part of many managers roles, but do you need help in understanding and presenting the information in a clear and concise way? This step-by-step guide shows you the advantages and potentials of using spreadsheets. After reading this book you’ll be able to master company accounts; understand balance sheets, profit and loss accounts and cash flow systems; and learn to analyse and monitor your company’s financial performance. BRILLIANT OUTCOMES: • How to save time and gain control of your business. • Ability to understand, analyse and present financial information in a clear and concise way. BRILLIANT FEATURES: • Up-to-date examples and spreadsheets. • On-line downloads of examples and spreadsheet models • New 234mm X 156mm format to make

Financial Risk Forecasting

Author: Jon Danielsson
Publisher: Wiley
ISBN: 9780470669433
Format: PDF, Mobi
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Financial Risk Forecasting is a complete introduction to practical quantitative risk management, with a focus on market risk. Derived from the authors teaching notes and years spent training practitioners in risk management techniques, it brings together the three key disciplines of finance, statistics and modeling (programming), to provide a thorough grounding in risk management techniques. Written by renowned risk expert Jon Danielsson, the book begins with an introduction to financial markets and market prices, volatility clusters, fat tails and nonlinear dependence. It then goes on to present volatility forecasting with both univatiate and multivatiate methods, discussing the various methods used by industry, with a special focus on the GARCH family of models. The evaluation of the quality of forecasts is discussed in detail. Next, the main concepts in risk and models to forecast risk are discussed, especially volatility, value-at-risk and expected shortfall. The focus is both on risk in basic assets such as stocks and foreign exchange, but also calculations of risk in bonds and options, with analytical methods such as delta-normal VaR and duration-normal VaR and Monte Carlo simulation. The book then moves on to the evaluation of risk models with methods like backtesting, followed by a discussion on stress testing. The book concludes by focussing on the forecasting of risk in very large and uncommon events with extreme value theory and considering the underlying assumptions behind almost every risk model in practical use – that risk is exogenous – and what happens when those assumptions are violated. Every method presented brings together theoretical discussion and derivation of key equations and a discussion of issues in practical implementation. Each method is implemented in both MATLAB and R, two of the most commonly used mathematical programming languages for risk forecasting with which the reader can implement the models illustrated in the book. The book includes four appendices. The first introduces basic concepts in statistics and financial time series referred to throughout the book. The second and third introduce R and MATLAB, providing a discussion of the basic implementation of the software packages. And the final looks at the concept of maximum likelihood, especially issues in implementation and testing. The book is accompanied by a website - www.financialriskforecasting.com – which features downloadable code as used in the book.