Introduction to Financial Forecasting in Investment Analysis

Author: John B. Guerard, Jr.
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1461452392
Format: PDF
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Forecasting—the art and science of predicting future outcomes—has become a crucial skill in business and economic analysis. This volume introduces the reader to the tools, methods, and techniques of forecasting, specifically as they apply to financial and investing decisions. With an emphasis on "earnings per share" (eps), the author presents a data-oriented text on financial forecasting, understanding financial data, assessing firm financial strategies (such as share buybacks and R&D spending), creating efficient portfolios, and hedging stock portfolios with financial futures. The opening chapters explain how to understand economic fluctuations and how the stock market leads the general economic trend; introduce the concept of portfolio construction and how movements in the economy influence stock price movements; and introduce the reader to the forecasting process, including exponential smoothing and time series model estimations. Subsequent chapters examine the composite index of leading economic indicators (LEI); review financial statement analysis and mean-variance efficient portfolios; and assess the effectiveness of analysts’ earnings forecasts. Using data from such firms as Intel, General Electric, and Hitachi, Guerard demonstrates how forecasting tools can be applied to understand the business cycle, evaluate market risk, and demonstrate the impact of global stock selection modeling and portfolio construction.

Financial Analysis Planning Forecasting

Author: Alice C. Lee
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9812706089
Format: PDF, Kindle
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New Professor Cheng-Few Lee ranks #1 based on his publications in the 26 core finance journals, and #163 based on publications in the 7 leading finance journals (Source: Most Prolific Authors in the Finance Literature: 1959-2008 by Jean L Heck and Philip L Cooley (Saint Joseph's University and Trinity University). Based on the authors' extensive teaching, research and business experiences, this book reviews, discusses and integrates both theoretical and practical aspects of financial planning and forecasting. The book is divided into six parts: Information and Methodology for Financial Analysis, Alternative Finance Theories and Their Application, Capital Budgeting and Leasing Decisions, Corporate Policies and Their Interrelationships, Short-term Financial Decisions, Financial Planning and Forecasting, and Overview.The theories used in this book are pre-Modigliani-Miller Theorem, Modigliani-Miller Theorem, Capital Asset Pricing Model and Arbitrage Pricing Theory, and Option Pricing Theory. The interrelationships among these theories are carefully analyzed. Meaningful real-world examples of using these theories are discussed step-by-step, with relevant data and methodology. Alternative planning and forecasting models are also used to show how the interdisciplinary approach is helpful in making meaningful financial management decisions.

Financial Forecasting Analysis and Modelling

Author: Michael Samonas
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118921097
Format: PDF
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Risk analysis has become critical to modern financialplanning Financial Forecasting, Analysis and Modelling provides acomplete framework of long-term financial forecasts in a practicaland accessible way, helping finance professionals includeuncertainty in their planning and budgeting process. With thoroughcoverage of financial statement simulation models and clear,concise implementation instruction, this book guides readersstep-by-step through the entire projection plan developmentprocess. Readers learn the tools, techniques, and specialconsiderations that increase accuracy and smooth the workflow, anddevelop a more robust analysis process that improves financialstrategy. The companion website provides a complete operationalmodel that can be customised to develop financial projections or arange of other key financial measures, giving readers animmediately-applicable tool to facilitate effectivedecision-making. In the aftermath of the recent financial crisis, the need forexperienced financial modelling professionals has steadilyincreased as organisations rush to adjust to economic volatilityand uncertainty. This book provides the deeper level ofunderstanding needed to develop stronger financial planning, withtechniques tailored to real-life situations. Develop long-term projection plans using Excel Use appropriate models to develop a more proactivestrategy Apply risk and uncertainty projections more accurately Master the Excel Scenario Manager, Sensitivity Analysis, MonteCarlo Simulation, and more Risk plays a larger role in financial planning than ever before,and possible outcomes must be measured before decisions are made.Uncertainty has become a critical component in financial planning,and accuracy demands it be used appropriately. With special focuson uncertainty in modelling and planning, Financial Forecasting,Analysis and Modelling is a comprehensive guide to themechanics of modern finance.

Capital Budgeting Valuation

Author: H. Kent Baker
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 9781118044568
Format: PDF, ePub
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An essential guide to valuation techniques and financial analysis With the collapse of the economy and financial systems, many institutions are reevaluating what they are willing to spend money on. Project valuation is key to both cost effectiveness measures and shareholder value. The purpose of this book is to provide a comprehensive examination of critical capital budgeting topics. Coverage extends from discussing basic concepts, principles, and techniques to their application to increasingly complex, real-world situations. Throughout, the book emphasizes how financially sound capital budgeting facilitates the process of value creation and discusses why various theories make sense and how firms can use them to solve problems and create wealth. Offers a strategic focus on the application of various techniques and approaches related to a firm's overall strategy Provides coverage of international topics based on the premise that managers should view business from a global perspective Emphasizes the importance of using real options Comprised of contributed chapters from both experienced professionals and academics, Capital Budgeting Valuation offers a variety of perspectives and a rich interplay of ideas related to this important financial discipline.

Portfolio Construction Measurement and Efficiency

Author: John B. Guerard, Jr.
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319339761
Format: PDF, Kindle
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This volume, inspired by and dedicated to the work of pioneering investment analyst, Jack Treynor, addresses the issues of portfolio risk and return and how investment portfolios are measured. In a career spanning over fifty years, the primary questions addressed by Jack Treynor were: Is there an observable risk-return trade-off? How can stock selection models be integrated with risk models to enhance client returns? Do managed portfolios earn positive, and statistically significant, excess returns and can mutual fund managers time the market? Since the publication of a pair of seminal Harvard Business Review articles in the mid-1960’s, Jack Treynor has developed thinking that has greatly influenced security selection, portfolio construction and measurement, and market efficiency. Key publications addressed such topics as the Capital Asset Pricing Model and stock selection modeling and integration with risk models. Treynor also served as editor of the Financial Analysts Journal, through which he wrote many columns across a wide spectrum of topics. This volume showcases original essays by leading researchers and practitioners exploring the topics that have interested Treynor while applying the most current methodologies. Such topics include the origins of portfolio theory, market timing, and portfolio construction in equity markets. The result not only reinforces Treynor’s lasting contributions to the field but suggests new areas for research and analysis.