Risk and Hierarchy in International Society

Author: W. Clapton
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 1137396377
Format: PDF, Docs
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The English School of International Relations has traditionally maintained that international society cannot accommodate hierarchical relationships between states. This book employs a unique theoretical and conceptual approach challenging this view and arguing that hierarchies are formed on Western states' need to manage globalised risks.

Intelligence and Surprise Attack

Author: Erik J. Dahl
Publisher: Georgetown University Press
ISBN: 1589019989
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
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How can the United States avoid a future surprise attack on the scale of 9/11 or Pearl Harbor, in an era when such devastating attacks can come not only from nation states, but also from terrorist groups or cyber enemies? Intelligence and Surprise Attack examines why surprise attacks often succeed even though, in most cases, warnings had been available beforehand. Erik J. Dahl challenges the conventional wisdom about intelligence failure, which holds that attacks succeed because important warnings get lost amid noise or because intelligence officials lack the imagination and collaboration to “connect the dots” of available information. Comparing cases of intelligence failure with intelligence success, Dahl finds that the key to success is not more imagination or better analysis, but better acquisition of precise, tactical-level intelligence combined with the presence of decision makers who are willing to listen to and act on the warnings they receive from their intelligence staff. The book offers a new understanding of classic cases of conventional and terrorist attacks such as Pearl Harbor, the Battle of Midway, and the bombings of US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania. The book also presents a comprehensive analysis of the intelligence picture before the 9/11 attacks, making use of new information available since the publication of the 9/11 Commission Report and challenging some of that report’s findings.

The Fat Tail

Author: Ian Bremmer
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 9780199752881
Format: PDF
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As Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat reveal in this innovative book, volatile political events such as the 2008 Georgia-Russia confrontation--and their catastrophic effects on business--happen much more frequently than investors imagine. On the curve that charts both the frequency of these events and the power of their impact, the "tail" of extreme political instability is not reassuringly thin but dangerously fat. Featuring a new Foreward that accounts for the cataclysmic effects of the 2008 financial crisis, The Fat Tail is the first book to both identify the wide range of political risks that global firms face and show investors how to effectively manage them. Written by two of the world's leading figures in political risk management, it reveals that while the world remains exceedingly risky for businesses, it is by no means incomprehensible. Political risk is unpredictable, but it is easier to analyze and manage than most people think. Applying the lessons of world history, Bremmer and Keat survey a vast range of contemporary risky situations, from stable markets like the United States or Japan, where politically driven regulation can still dramatically effect business, to more precarious places like Iran, China, Russia, Turkey, Mexico, and Nigeria, where private property is less secure and energy politics sparks constant volatility. The book sheds light on a wide array of political risks--risks that stem from great power rivalries, terrorist groups, government takeover of private property, weak leaders and internal strife, and even the "black swans" that defy prediction. But more importantly, the authors provide a wealth of unique methods, tools, and concepts to help corporations, money managers, and policy makers understand political risk, showing when and how political risk analysis works--and when it does not. "The Fat Tail delivers practical wisdom on the impact of political risk on firms of every description and valuable advice on how to use it. Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat offer innovative thinking and useful insight that will help business decision-makers find fresh answers to questions they may not yet know they have." --Fareed Zakaria, best-selling author of The Post-American World "Political risk has become increasingly complex, and The Fat Tail provides a truly new way to quantitatively assess it in established and emerging markets. It is essential reading for any CEO with multinational interests." --Randall Stephenson, Chairman, CEO and President, AT&T Inc. "Should be essential reading for anyone involved in international business even--perhaps especially--in places that seem politically stable." --Bill Emmott, former editor-in-chief of The Economist

People Risk and Security

Author: Lance Wright
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 1349950939
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
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Lance Wright shows why business in the 21st century requires a new understanding of the intersection of risk, security, and human resource management. He argues that these areas should no longer be considered separate processes, handled by technical specialists with limited spheres of expertise. People, risk and security management should be treated as a critically important integrated business management system. People may be your greatest asset – but they can also be your biggest liability. They expose you to all sorts of risks – risks from things they can do (or fail to do) and from things that can be done to them. No matter how tight a risk and security management policy may be in theory, it can fail on its first contact with reality if it doesn’t understand the people involved. Wright understands people, risk and security like few others. For years he was in charge people management for leading oil companies – getting people into and out of some of the most dangerous and hostile work environments on the planet – and keeping them safe while they were there. Then he was responsible for a private army, literally licenced to kill, guarding nuclear submarines that were being decommissioned as part of the Megatons to Megawatts program. Risk is more than a set of formulas. Security is more than guns, gates, and badges. Both ultimately come down to the people you are responsible for. One day, the depth of your understanding of that connection may what stands between you and disaster.

The Second Nuclear Age

Author: Paul Bracken
Publisher: Macmillan
ISBN: 1429945044
Format: PDF, Kindle
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A leading international security strategist offers a compelling new way to "think about the unthinkable." The cold war ended more than two decades ago, and with its end came a reduction in the threat of nuclear weapons—a luxury that we can no longer indulge. It's not just the threat of Iran getting the bomb or North Korea doing something rash; the whole complexion of global power politics is changing because of the reemergence of nuclear weapons as a vital element of statecraft and power politics. In short, we have entered the second nuclear age. In this provocative and agenda-setting book, Paul Bracken of Yale University argues that we need to pay renewed attention to nuclear weapons and how their presence will transform the way crises develop and escalate. He draws on his years of experience analyzing defense strategy to make the case that the United States needs to start thinking seriously about these issues once again, especially as new countries acquire nuclear capabilities. He walks us through war-game scenarios that are all too realistic, to show how nuclear weapons are changing the calculus of power politics, and he offers an incisive tour of the Middle East, South Asia, and East Asia to underscore how the United States must not allow itself to be unprepared for managing such crises. Frank in its tone and farsighted in its analysis, The Second Nuclear Age is the essential guide to the new rules of international politics.

The Professionalization of Intelligence Cooperation

Author: A. Svendsen
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 1137269367
Format: PDF, Mobi
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An insightful exploration of intelligence cooperation (officially known as liaison), including its international dimensions. This book offers a distinct understanding of this process, valuable to those involved in critical information flows, such as intelligence, risk, crisis and emergency managers.

Conflict Analysis

Author: Matthew Levinger
Publisher: United States Institute of Peace Academy Guides
ISBN:
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
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Conflict Analysis: Understanding Causes, Unlocking Solutions is a guide for practitioners seeking to prevent deadly conflict or mitigate political instability. This handbook integrates theory and practice and emphasizes the importance of analyzing the causes of peace as well as the causes of conflict. It stresses that conflict analysis is a social as well as an intellectual process, helping practitioners translate analysis into effective action.