Managing Strategic Surprise

Author: Paul Bracken
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 0521883156
Format: PDF, Kindle
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The scope and applicability of risk management have expanded greatly over the past decade. Banks, corporations, and public agencies employ its new technologies both in their daily operations and long-term investments. It would be unimaginable today for a global bank to operate without such systems in place. Similarly, many areas of public management, from NASA to the Centers for Disease Control, have recast their programs using risk management strategies. It is particularly striking, therefore, that such thinking has failed to penetrate the field of national security policy. Venturing into uncharted waters, Managing Strategic Surprise brings together risk management experts and practitioners from different fields with internationally-recognized national security scholars to produce the first systematic inquiry into risk and its applications in national security. The contributors examine whether advance risk assessment and management techniques can be successfully applied to address contemporary national security challenges.

Strategic Risk Management Practice

Author: Torben Juul Andersen
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9781139483810
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
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At a time when corporate scandals and major financial failures dominate newspaper headlines, the importance of good risk management practices has never been more obvious. The absence or mismanagement of such practices can have devastating effects on exposed organizations and the wider economy (Barings Bank, Enron, Lehmann Brothers, Northern Rock, to name but a few). Today's organizations and corporate leaders must learn the lessons of such failures by developing practices to deal effectively with risk. This book is an important step towards this end. Written from a European perspective, it brings together ideas, concepts and practices developed in various risk markets and academic fields to provide a much-needed overview of different approaches to risk management. It critiques prevailing enterprise risk management frameworks (ERMs) and proposes a suitable alternative. Combining academic rigour and practical experience, this is an important resource for graduate students and professionals concerned with strategic risk management.

Risk and Hierarchy in International Society

Author: W. Clapton
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 1137396377
Format: PDF, ePub, Mobi
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The English School of International Relations has traditionally maintained that international society cannot accommodate hierarchical relationships between states. This book employs a unique theoretical and conceptual approach challenging this view and arguing that hierarchies are formed on Western states' need to manage globalised risks.

Intelligence and Surprise Attack

Author: Erik J. Dahl
Publisher: Georgetown University Press
ISBN: 1589019989
Format: PDF, ePub, Mobi
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How can the United States avoid a future surprise attack on the scale of 9/11 or Pearl Harbor, in an era when such devastating attacks can come not only from nation states, but also from terrorist groups or cyber enemies? Intelligence and Surprise Attack examines why surprise attacks often succeed even though, in most cases, warnings had been available beforehand. Erik J. Dahl challenges the conventional wisdom about intelligence failure, which holds that attacks succeed because important warnings get lost amid noise or because intelligence officials lack the imagination and collaboration to “connect the dots” of available information. Comparing cases of intelligence failure with intelligence success, Dahl finds that the key to success is not more imagination or better analysis, but better acquisition of precise, tactical-level intelligence combined with the presence of decision makers who are willing to listen to and act on the warnings they receive from their intelligence staff. The book offers a new understanding of classic cases of conventional and terrorist attacks such as Pearl Harbor, the Battle of Midway, and the bombings of US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania. The book also presents a comprehensive analysis of the intelligence picture before the 9/11 attacks, making use of new information available since the publication of the 9/11 Commission Report and challenging some of that report’s findings.

Country and Political Risk

Author: Sam Wilkin
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781904339311
Format: PDF, Kindle
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Provides a fully comprehensive overview of the factors affecting global investment, including practical insights and research on assessing country risk, in-depth analysis of country risk cases and advice on how to manage a country risk portfolio.

People Risk and Security

Author: Lance Wright
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 1349950939
Format: PDF, Mobi
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Lance Wright shows why business in the 21st century requires a new understanding of the intersection of risk, security, and human resource management. He argues that these areas should no longer be considered separate processes, handled by technical specialists with limited spheres of expertise. People, risk and security management should be treated as a critically important integrated business management system. People may be your greatest asset – but they can also be your biggest liability. They expose you to all sorts of risks – risks from things they can do (or fail to do) and from things that can be done to them. No matter how tight a risk and security management policy may be in theory, it can fail on its first contact with reality if it doesn’t understand the people involved. Wright understands people, risk and security like few others. For years he was in charge people management for leading oil companies – getting people into and out of some of the most dangerous and hostile work environments on the planet – and keeping them safe while they were there. Then he was responsible for a private army, literally licenced to kill, guarding nuclear submarines that were being decommissioned as part of the Megatons to Megawatts program. Risk is more than a set of formulas. Security is more than guns, gates, and badges. Both ultimately come down to the people you are responsible for. One day, the depth of your understanding of that connection may what stands between you and disaster.

The Fat Tail

Author: Ian Bremmer
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 9780199752881
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
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As Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat reveal in this innovative book, volatile political events such as the 2008 Georgia-Russia confrontation--and their catastrophic effects on business--happen much more frequently than investors imagine. On the curve that charts both the frequency of these events and the power of their impact, the "tail" of extreme political instability is not reassuringly thin but dangerously fat. Featuring a new Foreward that accounts for the cataclysmic effects of the 2008 financial crisis, The Fat Tail is the first book to both identify the wide range of political risks that global firms face and show investors how to effectively manage them. Written by two of the world's leading figures in political risk management, it reveals that while the world remains exceedingly risky for businesses, it is by no means incomprehensible. Political risk is unpredictable, but it is easier to analyze and manage than most people think. Applying the lessons of world history, Bremmer and Keat survey a vast range of contemporary risky situations, from stable markets like the United States or Japan, where politically driven regulation can still dramatically effect business, to more precarious places like Iran, China, Russia, Turkey, Mexico, and Nigeria, where private property is less secure and energy politics sparks constant volatility. The book sheds light on a wide array of political risks--risks that stem from great power rivalries, terrorist groups, government takeover of private property, weak leaders and internal strife, and even the "black swans" that defy prediction. But more importantly, the authors provide a wealth of unique methods, tools, and concepts to help corporations, money managers, and policy makers understand political risk, showing when and how political risk analysis works--and when it does not. "The Fat Tail delivers practical wisdom on the impact of political risk on firms of every description and valuable advice on how to use it. Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat offer innovative thinking and useful insight that will help business decision-makers find fresh answers to questions they may not yet know they have." --Fareed Zakaria, best-selling author of The Post-American World "Political risk has become increasingly complex, and The Fat Tail provides a truly new way to quantitatively assess it in established and emerging markets. It is essential reading for any CEO with multinational interests." --Randall Stephenson, Chairman, CEO and President, AT&T Inc. "Should be essential reading for anyone involved in international business even--perhaps especially--in places that seem politically stable." --Bill Emmott, former editor-in-chief of The Economist

Identifying and Managing Project Risk

Author: Tom Kendrick
Publisher: AMACOM
ISBN: 0814436099
Format: PDF, Kindle
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Projects-especially complex ones-are inherently risky. Between time constraints, technical challenges, and resource issues, things can easily go wrong-making the identification of potential risks an essential component of every project manager's job. Fully updated and consistent with the Risk Management Professional (RMP) certification and the Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK(R)), Identifying and Managing Project Risk remains the definitive resource for project managers seeking to guard against failure. Drawing on real-world situations and hundreds of examples, the book outlines the risk management process and provides proven methods for project risk planning. Readers will learn how to use high-level risk assessment tools, implement a system for monitoring and controlling projects, and properly document every consideration. Analyzing aspects such as project scope, available resources, and scheduling, the third edition also offers fresh guidance on program risk management, qualitative and quantitative risk analysis, simulation and modeling, and significant "non-project" risks. This practical book will help readers eliminate surprises and keep projects on track.

The Second Nuclear Age

Author: Paul Bracken
Publisher: Macmillan
ISBN: 1429945044
Format: PDF, ePub, Mobi
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A leading international security strategist offers a compelling new way to "think about the unthinkable." The cold war ended more than two decades ago, and with its end came a reduction in the threat of nuclear weapons—a luxury that we can no longer indulge. It's not just the threat of Iran getting the bomb or North Korea doing something rash; the whole complexion of global power politics is changing because of the reemergence of nuclear weapons as a vital element of statecraft and power politics. In short, we have entered the second nuclear age. In this provocative and agenda-setting book, Paul Bracken of Yale University argues that we need to pay renewed attention to nuclear weapons and how their presence will transform the way crises develop and escalate. He draws on his years of experience analyzing defense strategy to make the case that the United States needs to start thinking seriously about these issues once again, especially as new countries acquire nuclear capabilities. He walks us through war-game scenarios that are all too realistic, to show how nuclear weapons are changing the calculus of power politics, and he offers an incisive tour of the Middle East, South Asia, and East Asia to underscore how the United States must not allow itself to be unprepared for managing such crises. Frank in its tone and farsighted in its analysis, The Second Nuclear Age is the essential guide to the new rules of international politics.