Practical Time Series Forecasting with R

Author: Galit Shmueli
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780997847918
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
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Practical Time Series Forecasting with R: A Hands-On Guide, Second Edition provides an applied approach to time-series forecasting. Forecasting is an essential component of predictive analytics. The book introduces popular forecasting methods and approaches used in a variety of business applications. The book offers clear explanations, practical examples, and end-of-chapter exercises and cases. Readers will learn to use forecasting methods using the free open-source R software to develop effective forecasting solutions that extract business value from time-series data. Featuring improved organization and new material, the Second Edition also includes: Popular forecasting methods including smoothing algorithms, regression models, and neural networks A practical approach to evaluating the performance of forecasting solutions A business-analytics exposition focused on linking time-series forecasting to business goals Guided cases for integrating the acquired knowledge using real data End-of-chapter problems to facilitate active learning A companion site with data sets, R code, learning resources, and instructor materials (solutions to exercises, case studies) Globally-available textbook, available in both softcover and Kindle formats Practical Time Series Forecasting with R: A Hands-On Guide, Second Edition is the perfect textbook for upper-undergraduate, graduate and MBA-level courses as well as professional programs in data science and business analytics. The book is also designed for practitioners in the fields of operations research, supply chain management, marketing, economics, finance and management. For more information, visit forecastingbook.com

Practical Time Series Forecasting

Author: Galit Shmueli
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780991576661
Format: PDF
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PRACTICAL TIME SERIES FORECASTING is a hands-on introduction to quantitative forecasting of time series. Quantitative forecasting, known as forecasting analytics, is an important component of decision making in a wide range of areas and across many business functions including economic forecasting, workload projections, sales forecasts, and transportation demand. Forecasting is also widely used in automated applications such as forecasting flight delays, web keyword search volume, and weather. Forecasting is heavily used in many areas outside of business, such as in demography and climatology. This book introduces readers to the most popular statistical models and data mining algorithms used in practice. It covers issues relating to different steps of the forecasting process, from goal definition through data collection, visualization, pre-processing, modeling, performance evaluation to implementation and communication. The third edition offers improved organization, updated software screenshots, and additional material.PRACTICAL TIME SERIES FORECASTING is suitable for courses on forecasting at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels, and in professional business analytics and data science programs. It offers clear explanations, examples, end-of-chapter problems and cases. Methods are illustrated using XLMiner®, an Excel® add-on. However, any software that has time series forecasting capabilities can be used with the book. For R users, an R edition of this textbook is also available.

Practical Time Series Analysis

Author: Dr. Avishek Pal
Publisher: Packt Publishing Ltd
ISBN: 178829419X
Format: PDF, Kindle
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Step by Step guide filled with real world practical examples. About This Book Get your first experience with data analysis with one of the most powerful types of analysis—time-series. Find patterns in your data and predict the future pattern based on historical data. Learn the statistics, theory, and implementation of Time-series methods using this example-rich guide Who This Book Is For This book is for anyone who wants to analyze data over time and/or frequency. A statistical background is necessary to quickly learn the analysis methods. What You Will Learn Understand the basic concepts of Time Series Analysis and appreciate its importance for the success of a data science project Develop an understanding of loading, exploring, and visualizing time-series data Explore auto-correlation and gain knowledge of statistical techniques to deal with non-stationarity time series Take advantage of exponential smoothing to tackle noise in time series data Learn how to use auto-regressive models to make predictions using time-series data Build predictive models on time series using techniques based on auto-regressive moving averages Discover recent advancements in deep learning to build accurate forecasting models for time series Gain familiarity with the basics of Python as a powerful yet simple to write programming language In Detail Time Series Analysis allows us to analyze data which is generated over a period of time and has sequential interdependencies between the observations. This book describes special mathematical tricks and techniques which are geared towards exploring the internal structures of time series data and generating powerful descriptive and predictive insights. Also, the book is full of real-life examples of time series and their analyses using cutting-edge solutions developed in Python. The book starts with descriptive analysis to create insightful visualizations of internal structures such as trend, seasonality and autocorrelation. Next, the statistical methods of dealing with autocorrelation and non-stationary time series are described. This is followed by exponential smoothing to produce meaningful insights from noisy time series data. At this point, we shift focus towards predictive analysis and introduce autoregressive models such as ARMA and ARIMA for time series forecasting. Later, powerful deep learning methods are presented, to develop accurate forecasting models for complex time series, and under the availability of little domain knowledge. All the topics are illustrated with real-life problem scenarios and their solutions by best-practice implementations in Python. The book concludes with the Appendix, with a brief discussion of programming and solving data science problems using Python. Style and approach This book takes the readers from the basic to advance level of Time series analysis in a very practical and real world use cases.

Practical Time Series Forecasting

Author: Galit Shmueli
Publisher: CreateSpace
ISBN: 9781468053456
Format: PDF, ePub, Mobi
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Practical Time Series Forecasting is a hands-on introduction to quantitative forecasting of time series. Quantitative forecasting is an important component of decision making in a wide range of areas and across many business functions including economic forecasting, workload projections, sales forecasts, and transportation demand. Forecasting is also widely used also outside of business, such as in demography and climatology. The book introduces readers to the most popular statistical models and data mining algorithms used in practice. It covers issues relating to different steps of the forecasting process, from goal definition through data collection, visualization, pre-processing, modeling, performance evaluation to implementation and communication. The second edition offers a large amount of new content and improved organization. Practical Time Series Forecasting is suitable for courses on forecasting at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It offers clear explanations, examples, end-of-chapter problems and a case. Methods are illustrated using XLMiner, an Excel add-on. However, any software that has time series forecasting capabilities can be used with the book. A companion website to the book is available at www.ForecastingBook.com Galit Shmueli is the SRITNE Chaired Professor of Data Analytics at the Indian School of Business. She is co-author of the textbook Data Mining for Business Intelligence and the book Modeling Online Auctions, among several other books and many publications in professional journals. She has been teaching courses on forecasting, data mining and other data analytics topics at the Indian School of Business, University of Maryland's Smith School of Business, and online at Statistics.com.

Practical Time Series Analysis Using SAS

Author: Anders Milhoj
Publisher: SAS Institute
ISBN: 1612906249
Format: PDF, Kindle
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Anders Milhøj's Practical Time Series Analysis Using SAS explains and demonstrates through examples how you can use SAS for time series analysis. It offers modern procedures for forecasting, seasonal adjustments, and decomposition of time series that can be used without involved statistical reasoning. The book teaches, with numerous examples, how to apply these procedures with very simple coding. In addition, it also gives the statistical background for interested readers. Beginning with an introductory chapter that covers the practical handling of time series data in SAS using the TIMESERIES and EXPAND procedures, it goes on to explain forecasting, which is found in the ESM procedure; seasonal adjustment, including trading-day correction using PROC X12; and unobserved component models using the UCM procedure. This book is part of the SAS Press program.

Time Series Forecasting

Author: Chris Chatfield
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1420036203
Format: PDF, Mobi
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From the author of the bestselling "Analysis of Time Series," Time-Series Forecasting offers a comprehensive, up-to-date review of forecasting methods. It provides a summary of time-series modelling procedures, followed by a brief catalogue of many different time-series forecasting methods, ranging from ad-hoc methods through ARIMA and state-space modelling to multivariate methods and including recent arrivals, such as GARCH models, neural networks, and cointegrated models. The author compares the more important methods in terms of their theoretical inter-relationships and their practical merits. He also considers two other general forecasting topics that have been somewhat neglected in the literature: the computation of prediction intervals and the effect of model uncertainty on forecast accuracy. Although the search for a "best" method continues, it is now well established that no single method will outperform all other methods in all situations-the context is crucial. Time-Series Forecasting provides an outstanding reference source for the more generally applicable methods particularly useful to researchers and practitioners in forecasting in the areas of economics, government, industry, and commerce.

Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting

Author: Philip Hans Franses
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1139952129
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
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With a new author team contributing decades of practical experience, this fully updated and thoroughly classroom-tested second edition textbook prepares students and practitioners to create effective forecasting models and master the techniques of time series analysis. Taking a practical and example-driven approach, this textbook summarises the most critical decisions, techniques and steps involved in creating forecasting models for business and economics. Students are led through the process with an entirely new set of carefully developed theoretical and practical exercises. Chapters examine the key features of economic time series, univariate time series analysis, trends, seasonality, aberrant observations, conditional heteroskedasticity and ARCH models, non-linearity and multivariate time series, making this a complete practical guide. Downloadable datasets are available online.

Neural network time series forecasting of financial markets

Author: Eitan Michael Azoff
Publisher: John Wiley & Son Ltd
ISBN:
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
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Neural Network Time Series Forecasting of Financial Markets E. Michael Azoff The first comprehensive and practical introduction to using neural networks in financial time series forecasting. This practical working guide shows you how to understand, design and profitably use neural network techniques in financial market forecasting. It encompasses: A tutorial introduction to neural networks Data preprocessing Key network design issues Random walk probability theory Fully specified benchmarks (and code for implementing the benchmarks as pre-trained networks) An overview of futures trading Discussion of trading systems and risk management The book focuses on the multilayer perception, one of the most powerful and successful network architectures that is used in the majority of commercial applications, especially financial time series forecasting. The fully specified benchmarks are a unique feature of the book and will be of particular benefit if you are contemplating designing your own neural network using one of the many commercial simulators.

Forecasting principles and practice

Author: Rob J Hyndman
Publisher: OTexts
ISBN: 0987507117
Format: PDF
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Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.

Time Series Analysis and Forecasting by Example

Author: Søren Bisgaard
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 9781118056950
Format: PDF, Docs
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An intuition-based approach enables you to master time series analysis with ease Time Series Analysis and Forecasting by Example provides the fundamental techniques in time series analysis using various examples. By introducing necessary theory through examples that showcase the discussed topics, the authors successfully help readers develop an intuitive understanding of seemingly complicated time series models and their implications. The book presents methodologies for time series analysis in a simplified, example-based approach. Using graphics, the authors discuss each presented example in detail and explain the relevant theory while also focusing on the interpretation of results in data analysis. Following a discussion of why autocorrelation is often observed when data is collected in time, subsequent chapters explore related topics, including: Graphical tools in time series analysis Procedures for developing stationary, non-stationary, and seasonal models How to choose the best time series model Constant term and cancellation of terms in ARIMA models Forecasting using transfer function-noise models The final chapter is dedicated to key topics such as spurious relationships, autocorrelation in regression, and multiple time series. Throughout the book, real-world examples illustrate step-by-step procedures and instructions using statistical software packages such as SAS®, JMP, Minitab, SCA, and R. A related Web site features PowerPoint slides to accompany each chapter as well as the book's data sets. With its extensive use of graphics and examples to explain key concepts, Time Series Analysis and Forecasting by Example is an excellent book for courses on time series analysis at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. it also serves as a valuable resource for practitioners and researchers who carry out data and time series analysis in the fields of engineering, business, and economics.