Risk Analysis of Complex and Uncertain Systems

Author: Louis Anthony Cox Jr.
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9780387890142
Format: PDF, Kindle
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In Risk Analysis of Complex and Uncertain Systems acknowledged risk authority Tony Cox shows all risk practitioners how Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) can be used to improve risk management decisions and policies. It develops and illustrates QRA methods for complex and uncertain biological, engineering, and social systems – systems that have behaviors that are just too complex to be modeled accurately in detail with high confidence – and shows how they can be applied to applications including assessing and managing risks from chemical carcinogens, antibiotic resistance, mad cow disease, terrorist attacks, and accidental or deliberate failures in telecommunications network infrastructure. This book was written for a broad range of practitioners, including decision risk analysts, operations researchers and management scientists, quantitative policy analysts, economists, health and safety risk assessors, engineers, and modelers.

Structural Performance

Author: Christian Cremona
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118601157
Format: PDF, Mobi
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This book covers the development of efficient methods for the assessment and the management of civil structures is today a major challenge from economical, social and environmental aspects. Tools for handling uncertainties in loads, geometry, material properties, construction and operating conditions are nowadays essential. Covers the key concepts across topics including probability theory and statistics, structural safety, performance-based assessment, modelling uncertainties and principles of decision theory.

Safety Reliability and Risk Analysis

Author: R.D.J.M. Steenbergen
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1315815591
Format: PDF, ePub, Mobi
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During the last decade there have been increasing societal concerns over sustainable developments focusing on the conservation of the environment, the welfare and safety of the individual and at the same time the optimal allocation of available natural and financial resources. As a consequence the methods of risk and reliability analysis are becoming increasingly important as decision support tools in various fields of engineering. In this book, the risk and reliability research community looks beyond the horizon. The technology we deploy to fix today’s problems is based on research that started more than two decades ago. What we are doing today should make a difference for tomorrow. Developing innovative new knowledge and applications helps engineers to better play the important role they have for society in establishing the basis for decision making. Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis: Beyond the Horizon contains the papers presented at the 22nd European Safety and Reliability (ESREL 2013) annual conference in Amsterdam, The Netherlands. The abstracts book (785 pages) + full paper CD-ROM (3426 pages) cover a wide range of topics for which risk analysis forms an indispensable field of knowledge to ensure sufficient safety: Uncertainty Analysis, Accident and Incident Modeling, Human Factors and Human Reliability, System Reliability, Structural Reliability, Safety in Civil Engineering, Quantitative Risk Assessment, Prognostics and System Health Management, Occupational Safety, Mathematical Methods in Reliability and Safety, and Maintenance Modeling and Applications. Applications in different industrial areas are shown: Natural Hazards, Land Transportation, Aeronautics Aerospace, Chemical and Process Industry, Critical Infrastructures, Manufacturing, Security, Nuclear Industry, Energy, Maritime Transportation, and Information Technology.

Military Operations Research

Author: N.K. Jaiswal
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1461562759
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
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Operations Research (OR) emerged in an effort to improve the effectiveness of newly inducted weapons and equipment during World War II. While rapid growth ofOR led to its becoming an important aid to decision making in all sectors including defense, its contribution in defense remained largely confined to classified reports. Very few books dealing with applications of quantitative decision making techniques in military have been published presumably due to limited availability ofrelevant information. The situation changed rapidly during the last few years. The recognition of the subject of Military Operations Research (MOR) gave tremendous boost to its development. Books and journals on MOR started appearing. The number of sessions on MOR at national and international conferences also registered an increase. The volume of teaching, training and research activities in the field of MOR at military schools and non-military schools enhanced considerably. Military executives and commanders started taking increasing interest in getting scientific answers to questions pertaining to weapon acquisition, threat perception and quantification, assessment of damage or casualties, evaluation of chance of winning a battle, force mix, deployment and targeting of weapons against enemy targets, war games and scenario evaluation. Most of these problems were being tackled on the basis of intuition, judgment and experience or analysis under very simple assumptions. In an increasingly sophisticated and complex defense scenario resulting in advances in equipment and communications, the need for supplementing these practices by scientific research in MOR became imperative.

Nutritional Care of the Patient with Gastrointestinal Disease

Author: Alan L Buchman
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1138001236
Format: PDF, ePub
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This evidence-based book serves as a clinical manual as well as a reference guide for the diagnosis and management of common nutritional issues in relation to gastrointestinal disease. Chapters cover nutrition assessment; macro- and micronutrient absorption; malabsorption; food allergies; prebiotics and dietary fiber; probiotics and intestinal microflora; nutrition and GI cancer; nutritional management of reflux; nutrition in IBS and IBD; nutrition in acute and chronic pancreatitis; enteral nutrition; parenteral nutrition; medical and endoscopic therapy of obesity; surgical therapy of obesity; pharmacologic nutrition, and nutritional counseling.

Operations Research Management Science at Work

Author: Erhan Kozan
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9780792375883
Format: PDF, Kindle
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There is synergy between the diverse methodologies ofOperations Research and Management Science, and the many problems itseeks to solve. "Operation Research/Management Science at Work" isan example of that synergy. The principal aim of this book is toexamine selected recent research in and applications of OperationalResearch/Management Science. The focus is on research that is ofindustry interest and covers a wide range of topics from major fieldsof OR/MS in a systematic and coherent fashion. Each application ischosen to demonstrate the elegance of their implementations. The bookmeets the needs of applied researchers who are interested inapplications of OR/MS algorithms. Moreover, real world problemstogether with their solutions and implementations are the applicationsthat have been selected for the volume.The Asia Pacific region has embraced business applications of decisionsupport systems in recent years. Many of these applications have thestate of the art OR/MS techniques in this region embedded in them.Hence, the increased use of OR/MS techniques in this region providesopportunities for identifying methodological advances that are takingplace as a result of the unique nature of the applications. These alsoprovide opportunities for exploring synergies and interfaces thatexist between OR/MS, both in terms of applications and theoreticaladvances.

Intelligence Systems in Environmental Management Theory and Applications

Author: Cengiz Kahraman
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319429930
Format: PDF, Docs
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This book offers a comprehensive reference guide to intelligence systems in environmental management. It provides readers with all the necessary tools for solving complex environmental problems, where classical techniques cannot be applied. The respective chapters, written by prominent researchers, explain a wealth of both basic and advanced concepts including ant colony, genetic algorithms, evolutionary algorithms, fuzzy multi-criteria decision making tools, particle swarm optimization, agent-based modelling, artificial neural networks, simulated annealing, Tabu search, fuzzy multi-objective optimization, fuzzy rules, support vector machines, fuzzy cognitive maps, cumulative belief degrees, and many others. To foster a better understanding, all the chapters include relevant numerical examples or case studies. Taken together, they form an excellent reference guide for researchers, lecturers and postgraduate students pursuing research on complex environmental problems. Moreover, by extending all the main aspects of classical environmental solution techniques to its intelligent counterpart, the book presents a dynamic snapshot on the field that is expected to stimulate new directions and stimulate new ideas and developments.

Contract Analysis and Design for Supply Chains with Stochastic Demand

Author: Yingxue Zhao
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 1489976337
Format: PDF, ePub
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This book is devoted to analysis and design of supply chain contracts with stochastic demand. Given the extensive utilization of contracts in supply chains, the issues concerning contract analysis and design are extremely important for supply chain management (SCM), and substantial research has been developed to address those issues over the past years. Despite the abundance of classical research, new research needs to be conducted in response to new issues emerging with the recent changing business environments, such as the fast-shortening life cycle of product and the increasing globalization of supply chains. This book addresses these issues, with the intention to present new research on how to apply contracts to improve SCM. Contract Analysis and Design for Supply Chains with Stochastic Demand contains eight chapters and each chapter is summarized as follows: Chapter 1 provides a comprehensive review of the classical development of supply chain contracts. Chapter 2 examines the effects of demand uncertainty on the applicability of buyback contracts. Chapter 3 conducts a mean-risk analysis for wholesale price contracts, taking into account contracting value risk and risk preferences. Chapter 4 studies the optimization of product service system by franchise fee contracts in the service-oriented manufacturing supply chain with demand information asymmetry. Chapter 5 develops a bidirectional option contract model and explores the optimal contracting decisions and supply chain coordination issue with the bidirectional option. Chapter 6 addresses supply chain options pricing issue and a value-based pricing scheme is developed for the supply chain options. With a cooperative game theory approach, Chapter 7 explores the issues concerning supply chain contract selection/implementation with the option contract under consideration. Chapter 8 concludes the book and suggests worthy directions for future research.

Value Added Decision Making for Managers

Author: Kenneth Chelst
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1420075721
Format: PDF, Mobi
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Developed from the authors’ longstanding course on decision and risk analysis, Value-Added Decision Making for Managers explores the important interaction between decisions and management action and clarifies the barriers to rational decision making. The authors analyze strengths and weaknesses of the best alternatives, enabling decision makers to improve on these alternatives by adding value and reducing risk. The core of the text addresses decisions that involve selecting the best alternative from diverse choices. The decisions include buying a car, picking a supplier or home contractor, selecting a technology, picking a location for a manufacturing plant or sports stadium, hiring an employee or selecting among job offers, deciding on the size of a sales force, making a late design change, and sourcing to emerging markets. The book also covers more complex decisions arising in negotiations, strategy, and ethics that involve multiple dimensions simultaneously. Numerous activities interspersed throughout the text highlight real-world situations, helping readers see how the concepts presented can be used in their own work environment or personal life. Each chapter also includes discussion questions and references. Web Resource The book’s website at http://ise.wayne.edu/research/decision.php offers tutorials of Logical Decisions software for multi-objective decisions and Precision Tree software for probabilistic decisions. Directions for downloading student versions of the DecisionTools Suite and Logical Decisions software can be found in the appendices. Password-protected PowerPoint presentations for each chapter and solutions to all of the numeric examples are available for instructors.