Risk Surprises and Black Swans

Author: Terje Aven
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1317626311
Format: PDF, ePub, Mobi
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Risk, Surprises and Black Swans provides an in depth analysis of the risk concept with a focus on the critical link to knowledge; and the lack of knowledge, that risk and probability judgements are based on. Based on technical scientific research, this book presents a new perspective to help you understand how to assess and manage surprising, extreme events, known as ‘Black Swans’. This approach looks beyond the traditional probability-based principles to offer a broader insight into the important aspects of uncertain events and in doing so explores the ways to manage them. This book recognises the fundamental issues surrounding risk assessment and risk management to help you to understand and prepare for black swan events. Complete with international examples to illustrate ideas and concepts Integrates risk management and resilience based thinking Suitable for a variety of applications including engineering, finance and security.

Knowledge in Risk Assessment and Management

Author: Terje Aven
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119317894
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
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Exciting new developments in risk assessment and management Risk assessment and management is fundamentally founded on the knowledge available on the system or process under consideration. While this may be self-evident to the laymen, thought leaders within the risk community have come to recognize and emphasize the need to explicitly incorporate knowledge (K) in a systematic, rigorous, and transparent framework for describing and modeling risk. Featuring contributions by an international team of researchers and respected practitioners in the field, Knowledge in Risk Assessment and Management explores the latest developments in the ongoing effort to use risk assessment as a means for characterizing knowledge and/or lack of knowledge about a system or process of interest. By offering a fresh perspective on risk assessment and management, the book represents a significant contribution to the development of a sturdier foundation for the practice of risk assessment and for risk-informed decision making. How should K be described and evaluated in risk assessment? How can it be reflected and taken into account in formulating risk management strategies? With the help of numerous case studies and real-world examples, this book answers these and other critical questions at the heart of modern risk assessment, while identifying many practical challenges associated with this explicit framework. This book, written by international scholars and leaders in the field, and edited to make coverage both conceptually advanced and highly accessible: Offers a systematic, rigorous and transparent perspective and framework on risk assessment and management, explicitly strengthening the links between knowledge and risk Clearly and concisely introduces the key risk concepts at the foundation of risk assessment and management Features numerous cases and real-world examples, many of which focus on various engineering applications across an array of industries Knowledge in Risk Assessment and Management is a must-read for risk assessment and management professionals, as well as graduate students, researchers and educators in the field. It is also of interest to policy makers and business people who are eager to gain a better understanding of the foundations and boundaries of risk assessment, and how its outcomes should be used for decision-making.

The Illusion of Risk Control

Author: Gilles Motet
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319329391
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
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This book is open access under a CC BY 4.0 license. This book explores the implications of acknowledging uncertainty and black swans for regulation of high-hazard technologies, for stakeholder acceptability of potentially hazardous activities and for risk governance. The conventional approach to risk assessment, which combines the likelihood of an event and the severity of its consequences, is poorly suited to situations where uncertainty and ambiguity are prominent features of the risk landscape. The new definition of risk used by ISO, “the effect of uncertainty on [achievement of] one’s objectives”, recognizes this paradigm change. What lessons can we draw from the management of fire hazards in Edo-era Japan? Are there situations in which increasing uncertainty allows more effective safety management? How should society address the risk of potentially planet-destroying scientific experiments? This book presents insights from leading scholars in different disciplines to challenge current risk governance and safety management practice.

Risk Reliability and Safety Innovating Theory and Practice

Author: Lesley Walls
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1315349167
Format: PDF
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The safe and reliable performance of many systems with which we interact daily has been achieved through the analysis and management of risk. From complex infrastructures to consumer durables, from engineering systems and technologies used in transportation, health, energy, chemical, oil, gas, aerospace, maritime, defence and other sectors, the management of risk during design, manufacture, operation and decommissioning is vital. Methods and models to support risk-informed decision-making are well established but are continually challenged by technology innovations, increasing interdependencies, and changes in societal expectations. Risk, Reliability and Safety contains papers describing innovations in theory and practice contributed to the scientific programme of the European Safety and Reliability conference (ESREL 2016), held at the University of Strathclyde in Glasgow, Scotland (25—29 September 2016). Authors include scientists, academics, practitioners, regulators and other key individuals with expertise and experience relevant to specific areas. Papers include domain specific applications as well as general modelling methods. Papers cover evaluation of contemporary solutions, exploration of future challenges, and exposition of concepts, methods and processes. Topics include human factors, occupational health and safety, dynamic and systems reliability modelling, maintenance optimisation, uncertainty analysis, resilience assessment, risk and crisis management.

Risk Analysis

Author: Terje Aven
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119057809
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
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Risk Analysis, Second Edition Terje Aven, University of Stavanger, Norway A practical guide to the varied challenges presented in the ever-growing field of risk analysis. Risk Analysis presents an accessible and concise guide to performing risk analysis, in a wide variety of field, with minimal prior knowledge required. Forming an ideal companion volume to Aven's previous Wiley text Foundations of Risk Analysis, it provides clear recommendations and guidance in the planning, execution anduse of risk analysis. This new edition presents recent developments related to risk conceptualization, focusing on related issues on risk assessment and their application. New examples are also featured to clarify the reader's understanding in the application of risk analysis and the risk analysis process. Key features: Fully updated to include recent developments related to risk conceptualization and related issues on risk assessments and their applications. Emphasizes the decision making context of risk analysis rather than just computing probabilities Demonstrates how to carry out predictive risk analysis using a variety of case studies and examples. Written by an experienced expert in the field, in a style suitable for both industrial and academic audiences. This book is ideal for advanced undergraduates, graduates, analysts and researchers from statistics, engineering, finance, medicine and physical sciences. Managers facing decision making problems involving risk and uncertainty will also benefit from this book.

Antifragile

Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher: Random House Incorporated
ISBN: 0812979680
Format: PDF, ePub
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Shares insights into how adversity can bring out the best in individuals and communities, drawing on multiple disciplines to consider such topics as the superiority of city states over nation states and the drawbacks of debt.

Financial Darwinism

Author: Leo M. Tilman
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470385464
Format: PDF, ePub, Mobi
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"Financial Darwinism explores why and how financial firms must continuously evolve amidst genuine complexity and uncertainty in order to survive and remain competitive. It analyzes the strategic, investment, regulatory, and public policy implications of a "future that has already happened" and identifies actionable ways of putting new ideas into practice in a risk-focused manner." "Financial Darwinism - a blend of business strategy, corporate finance, investment analysis, and risk management - gives financial executives and investors a menu of broad choices on how to create economic value. In the process, a new kind of strategic vision, the breadth of global perspective, and command of advanced financial tools are shown to be essential ingredients of success."--BOOK JACKET.

The Failure of Risk Management

Author: Douglas W. Hubbard
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470387955
Format: PDF, Docs
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This book "takes a close look at misused and misapplied basic analysis methods and shows how some of the most popular "risk management" methods are no better than astrology! Using examples from the 2008 credit crisis, natural disasters, outsourcing to China, engineering disasters, and more, Hubbard reveals critical flaws in risk management methods–and shows how all of these problems can be fixed. The solutions involve combinations of scientifically proven and frequently used methods from nuclear power, exploratory oil, and other areas of business and government. Finally, Hubbard explains how new forms of collaboration across all industries and government can improve risk management in every field." - product description.

Stalking the Black Swan

Author: Kenneth A. Posner
Publisher: Columbia University Press
ISBN: 9780231521673
Format: PDF, Docs
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Kenneth A. Posner spent close to two decades as a Wall Street analyst, tracking the so-called "specialty finance" sector, which included controversial companies such as Countrywide, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, CIT, and MasterCard& mdash;many of which were caught in the subprime mortgage and capital markets crisis of 2007. While extreme volatility is nothing new in finance, the recent downturn caught many off guard, indicating that the traditional approach to decision making had let them down. Introducing a new framework for handling and evaluating extreme risk, Posner draws on years of experience to show how decision makers can best cope with the "Black Swans" of our time. Posner's shrewd assessment combines the classic fundamental research approach of Benjamin Graham and David Dodd with more recent developments in cognitive science, computational theory, and quantitative finance. He outlines a probabilistic approach to decision making that involves forecasting across a range of scenarios, and he explains how to balance confidence, react accurately to fast-breaking information, overcome information overload, zero in on the critical issues, penetrate the information asymmetry shielding corporate executives, and integrate the power of human intuition with sophisticated analytics. Emphasizing the computational resources we already have at our disposal& mdash;our computers and our minds& mdash;Posner offers a new track to decision making for analysts, investors, traders, corporate executives, risk managers, regulators, policymakers, journalists, and anyone who faces a world of extreme volatility.

Fundamentals of Enterprise Risk Management

Author: John Hampton
Publisher: AMACOM
ISBN: 0814449042
Format: PDF, ePub, Mobi
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One thing that will never change about the business world is the presence of risk. But risk management has changed dramatically since the 2008 financial crisis. . .and new developments in technology and communications demand up-to-the-minute approaches for defending against threats-and seizing opportunities. Extensively updated, the second edition of Fundamentals of Enterprise Risk Management examines the latest technologies such as Riskonnect and High Tech Electronic Platform (HTEP), and helps readers recognize both internal and external exposures, understand crucial concepts such as risk mapping and risk identification, and align risk opportunities with their organization's business model. Packed with practical exercises and fresh case studies from organizations such as IBM, Microsoft, Apple, JPMorgan Chase,and Sony-as well as new material on topics including the new role of Risk Owner, cutting-edge collaboration methods, and the upside of risk-this critical guide provides readers with the tools and information they need to keep their organizations as blissfully risk-free as possible.