Why Stock Markets Crash

Author: Didier Sornette
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400885094
Format: PDF, Kindle
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The scientific study of complex systems has transformed a wide range of disciplines in recent years, enabling researchers in both the natural and social sciences to model and predict phenomena as diverse as earthquakes, global warming, demographic patterns, financial crises, and the failure of materials. In this book, Didier Sornette boldly applies his varied experience in these areas to propose a simple, powerful, and general theory of how, why, and when stock markets crash. Most attempts to explain market failures seek to pinpoint triggering mechanisms that occur hours, days, or weeks before the collapse. Sornette proposes a radically different view: the underlying cause can be sought months and even years before the abrupt, catastrophic event in the build-up of cooperative speculation, which often translates into an accelerating rise of the market price, otherwise known as a "bubble." Anchoring his sophisticated, step-by-step analysis in leading-edge physical and statistical modeling techniques, he unearths remarkable insights and some predictions--among them, that the "end of the growth era" will occur around 2050. Sornette probes major historical precedents, from the decades-long "tulip mania" in the Netherlands that wilted suddenly in 1637 to the South Sea Bubble that ended with the first huge market crash in England in 1720, to the Great Crash of October 1929 and Black Monday in 1987, to cite just a few. He concludes that most explanations other than cooperative self-organization fail to account for the subtle bubbles by which the markets lay the groundwork for catastrophe. Any investor or investment professional who seeks a genuine understanding of looming financial disasters should read this book. Physicists, geologists, biologists, economists, and others will welcome Why Stock Markets Crash as a highly original "scientific tale," as Sornette aptly puts it, of the exciting and sometimes fearsome--but no longer quite so unfathomable--world of stock markets.

The Physics of Wall Street

Author: James Owen Weatherall
Publisher: HMH
ISBN: 0547618298
Format: PDF, Docs
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A look inside the world of “quants” and how science can (and can’t) predict financial markets: “Entertaining and enlightening” (The New York Times). After the economic meltdown of 2008, Warren Buffett famously warned, “beware of geeks bearing formulas.” But while many of the mathematicians and software engineers on Wall Street failed when their abstractions turned ugly in practice, a special breed of physicists has a much deeper history of revolutionizing finance. Taking us from fin-de-siècle Paris to Rat Pack–era Las Vegas, from wartime government labs to Yippie communes on the Pacific coast, James Owen Weatherall shows how physicists successfully brought their science to bear on some of the thorniest problems in economics, from options pricing to bubbles. The crisis was partly a failure of mathematical modeling. But even more, it was a failure of some very sophisticated financial institutions to think like physicists. Models—whether in science or finance—have limitations; they break down under certain conditions. And in 2008, sophisticated models fell into the hands of people who didn’t understand their purpose, and didn’t care. It was a catastrophic misuse of science. The solution, however, is not to give up on models; it’s to make them better. This book reveals the people and ideas on the cusp of a new era in finance, from a geophysicist using a model designed for earthquakes to predict a massive stock market crash to a physicist-run hedge fund earning 2,478.6% over the course of the 1990s. Weatherall shows how an obscure idea from quantum theory might soon be used to create a far more accurate Consumer Price Index. The Physics of Wall Street will change how we think about our economic future. “Fascinating history . . . Happily, the author has a gift for making complex concepts clear to lay readers.” —Booklist

Predatory Trading and Crowded Exits

Author: James Clunie
Publisher: Harriman House Limited
ISBN: 0857191519
Format: PDF, ePub, Mobi
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In this book, James Clunie looks at a series of market phenomena that involve security prices moving temporarily away from their 'fair value', creating opportunities for traders to profit (and the risk of losses for the unaware). These phenomena have only recently begun to be well understood and key among them are those known as 'predatory trading' and 'crowded exits'. The author examines these on three levels. Firstly, he describes the basic principles and theory behind each phenomenon, to build a solid framework for the way a trader should think about these situations. Secondly, he examines the accumulated empirical evidence of these situations. This gives an idea of what generally happens in these situations, and what the profit opportunity and the risks might be like. Finally, the author considers a number of individual cases to illustrate what can happen to traders in practice. Often, these will be special situations or extreme events from history, but always cases from which the trader can learn. By understanding these phenomena thoroughly in this way, a trader can gain an edge over others in the market. In the first instance by avoiding becoming the victim of the phenomena and secondly by using detailed knowledge of these situations to (legally and ethically) profit from the events. This book is for traders looking to gain an edge through a superior understanding of how markets work, both in theory and in practice. It will also be of interest to longer-horizon investors who are seeking to avoid timing errors, and to risk managers wanting to understand better the subtleties of risk beyond traditional risk statistics.


Author: Mark Buchanan
Publisher: A&C Black
ISBN: 1408827379
Format: PDF
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A groundbreaking book that uses physics to show how instability is inherent in economic markets, just as thunderstorms are a part of the weather.

Profiting from Monetary Policy

Author: Thomas Aubrey
Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan
ISBN: 1137289716
Format: PDF, Mobi
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The Financial Crisis has brought the pensions time bomb centre stage due to a decade of low returns increasing unfunded pension liabilities and lowering future retirement incomes. This is because most investors have been unable to avoid the substantial volatility in asset prices and capital destruction that has accompanied the business cycle. Until investors reject the prevailing monetary policy consensus as an investment framework based on price stability and general equilibrium, pension schemes will continue to suffer poor returns due to periodic downturns. Alternative credit-based disequilibrium frameworks exist, originating with the work of Knut Wicksell that was subsequently developed by the joint winners of the 1974 Nobel Prize, Friedrich Hayek and Gunnar Myrdal. Credit-based frameworks can measure the extent of disequilibrium in an economy signaling to investors when to switch from equities to bonds and vice versa, thus preserving capital as the business cycle shifts. Empirical analysis on multiple countries demonstrates that investment strategies that track the business cycle generate equity like returns with bond-like volatility. The provision of business cycle tracking funds will therefore at least go some way to defusing the shortfall in pension provision. Profiting from Monetary Policy is a highly innovative book that provides new insights on the business cycle and exposes the flaws in current monetary policy. It advocates a new, credit-based framework which can provide investors with the returns they need whilst eliminating the volatility that has plagued the industry in recent years, and will prove to be an invaluable guide for investors in today's post-crisis landscape.

Models Behaving Badly

Author: Emanuel Derman
Publisher: Simon and Schuster
ISBN: 1439165017
Format: PDF, ePub, Mobi
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Now in paperback, “a compelling, accessible, and provocative piece of work that forces us to question many of our assumptions” (Gillian Tett, author of Fool’s Gold). Quants, physicists working on Wall Street as quantitative analysts, have been widely blamed for triggering financial crises with their complex mathematical models. Their formulas were meant to allow Wall Street to prosper without risk. But in this penetrating insider’s look at the recent economic collapse, Emanuel Derman—former head quant at Goldman Sachs—explains the collision between mathematical modeling and economics and what makes financial models so dangerous. Though such models imitate the style of physics and employ the language of mathematics, theories in physics aim for a description of reality—but in finance, models can shoot only for a very limited approximation of reality. Derman uses his firsthand experience in financial theory and practice to explain the complicated tangles that have paralyzed the economy. Models.Behaving.Badly. exposes Wall Street’s love affair with models, and shows us why nobody will ever be able to write a model that can encapsulate human behavior.

Stock Market Crashes Predictable And Unpredictable And What To Do About Them

Author: Ziemba William T
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9813223863
Format: PDF
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This book presents studies of stock market crashes big and small that occur from bubbles bursting or other reasons. By a bubble we mean that prices are rising just because they are rising and that prices exceed fundamental values. A bubble can be a large rise in prices followed by a steep fall. The focus is on determining if a bubble actually exists, on models to predict stock market declines in bubble-like markets and exit strategies from these bubble-like markets. We list historical great bubbles of various markets over hundreds of years. We present four models that have been successful in predicting large stock market declines of ten percent plus that average about minus twenty-five percent. The bond stock earnings yield difference model was based on the 1987 US crash where the S&P 500 futures fell 29% in one day. The model is based on earnings yields relative to interest rates. When interest rates become too high relative to earnings, there almost always is a decline in four to twelve months. The initial out of sample test was on the Japanese stock market from 1948-88. There all twelve danger signals produced correct decline signals. But there were eight other ten percent plus declines that occurred for other reasons. Then the model called the 1990 Japan huge -56% decline. We show various later applications of the model to US stock declines such as in 2000 and 2007 and to the Chinese stock market. We also compare the model with high price earnings decline predictions over a sixty year period in the US. We show that over twenty year periods that have high returns they all start with low price earnings ratios and end with high ratios. High price earnings models have predictive value and the BSEYD models predict even better. Other large decline prediction models are call option prices exceeding put prices, Warren Buffett's value of the stock market to the value of the economy adjusted using BSEYD ideas and the value of Sotheby's stock. Investors expect more declines than actually occur. We present research on the positive effects of FOMC meetings and small cap dominance with Democratic Presidents. Marty Zweig was a wall street legend while he was alive. We discuss his methods for stock market predictability using momentum and FED actions. These helped him become the leading analyst and we show that his ideas still give useful predictions in 2016-2017. We study small declines in the five to fifteen percent range that are either not expected or are expected but when is not clear. For these we present methods to deal with these situations. The last four January-February 2016, Brexit, Trump and French elections are analzyed using simple volatility-S&P 500 graphs. Another very important issue is can you exit bubble-like markets at favorable prices. We use a stopping rule model that gives very good exit results. This is applied successfully to Apple computer stock in 2012, the Nasdaq 100 in 2000, the Japanese stock and golf course membership prices, the US stock market in 1929 and 1987 and other markets. We also show how to incorporate predictive models into stochastic investment models. Contents: IntroductionDiscovery of the Bond–Stock Earnings Yield Differential ModelPrediction of the 2007–2009 Stock Market Crashes in the US, China and IcelandThe High Price–Earnings Stock Market Danger Approach of Campbell and Shiller versus the BSEYD ModelOther Prediction Models for the Big Crashes Averaging –25%Effect of Fed Meetings and Small-Cap DominanceUsing Zweig's Monetary and Momentum Models in the Modern EraAnalysis and Possible Prediction of Declines in the –5% to –15% RangeA Stopping Rule Model for Exiting Bubble-like Markets with ApplicationsA Simple Procedure to Incorporate Predictive Models in Stochastic Investment Models

Financial Derivatives

Author: Jamil Baz
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521815109
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
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This book offers a complete, succinct account of the principles of financial derivatives pricing. The first chapter provides readers with an intuitive exposition of basic random calculus. Concepts such as volatility and time, random walks, geometric Brownian motion, and Ito's lemma are discussed heuristically. The second chapter develops generic pricing techniques for assets and derivatives, determining the notion of a stochastic discount factor or pricing kernel, and then uses this concept to price conventional and exotic derivatives. The third chapter applies the pricing concepts to the special case of interest rate markets, namely, bonds and swaps, and discusses factor models and term structure consistent models. The fourth chapter deals with a variety of mathematical topics that underlie derivatives pricing and portfolio allocation decisions such as mean-reverting processes and jump processes and discusses related tools of stochastic calculus such as Kolmogorov equations, martingale techniques, stochastic control, and partial differential equations.

Financial Market Bubbles and Crashes Second Edition

Author: Harold L. Vogel
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319715283
Format: PDF, ePub
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Economists broadly define financial asset price bubbles as episodes in which prices rise with notable rapidity and depart from historically established asset valuation multiples and relationships. Financial economists have for decades attempted to study and interpret bubbles through the prisms of rational expectations, efficient markets, and equilibrium, arbitrage, and capital asset pricing models, but they have not made much if any progress toward a consistent and reliable theory that explains how and why bubbles (and crashes) evolve and can also be defined, measured, and compared. This book develops a new and different approach that is based on the central notion that bubbles and crashes reflect urgent short-side rationing, which means that, as such extreme conditions unfold, considerations of quantities owned or not owned begin to displace considerations of price.

European Financial Systems in the Global Economy

Author: Beate Reszat
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470870575
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
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European Financial Systems in the Global Economy provides an overview of sources of finance, types of financial intermediation and financial systems in Europe and their relative importance in the world economy. It describes market mechanisms and prices and gives a broad introduction to the relevant regional financial and monetary issues (including those countries that will join the EU in the future) and makes an ideal primer for those new to the world of finance.